The worst Pokémon sets to open, ranked by pull rates and pack value

“Worst set” can mean a lot of things: ugly cards, a weak lineup for players, or a set that didn’t hold its value. We looked at the question a pack opener cares about: when you open a pack, how much card value do you get back for your money, and how hard are the chase cards to pull? The short answer: at the prices packs actually sell for today, every set we track is a losing open, and the gap between the worst and the best is smaller than you’d think.

Key takeaways

• At today’s loose-pack prices, every set we track returns between $0.14 and $0.77 in hit-card value per $1 spent.
• Evolving Skies returns the least at today’s prices. Crown Zenith returns the most, and still loses money on average.
• At MSRP the picture changes: Chaos Rising is worst at $0.28 per $1, and Crown Zenith is best at $4.43.
• Mega Evolution has the hardest Special Illustration Rares to pull, at about 1 in 101 packs.
• No set is a reliable way to make money. If you want a specific card, buy the single.

The ranking: value per pack#

For each set, we multiply each rarity’s pull rate by the average price of its cards, add them up, and compare that to what a pack costs. “Back per $1” is what an average pack’s hits are worth for every dollar you spend on packs. Below $1.00, you’re paying more than you get back, on average. The table is sorted worst first, by today’s pack price.

"Hits worth" is the average market value of the tracked hit cards in one pack: each rarity's pull rate times the average price of its cards. Commons, uncommons and reverse holos aren't counted, and the ranking uses today's pack price where we have one. TCGplayer market prices as of Oct 12, 2026.24 of 24 sets return less than a pack costs.

Two caveats matter here. First, we count only the rarities we track pull rates for (Double Rares and up, or the set’s equivalents), so commons, uncommons and ordinary reverse holos aren’t included. Second, the value is an average over many packs. Your next pack could be worth nothing or hundreds of dollars.

Why every set loses at today’s prices#

Look at the two “back per $1” columns side by side. At MSRP, some sets return more than they cost. But almost nobody pays MSRP for these packs anymore: loose packs sell for far more on the secondary market, and the same hits spread over a pricier pack return less per dollar.

The pattern holds across popular sets: the hype that makes a set’s cards valuable also makes its packs expensive, so you pay for the chase up front.

The worst set at MSRP#

If you can find packs at MSRP, Chaos Rising is the weakest open we track. An average pack’s hits are worth about $1.27, against a $4.49 pack. A set can have valuable chase cards and still rank last, because the value is concentrated in a handful of cards that very few packs contain, while most of the hits are cheap.

The hardest pulls: Special Illustration Rare odds#

Value per pack is one way to rank sets. The other is how long you’ll wait for a big hit. Here’s how often a Special Illustration Rare shows up in each set we track that has them.

1. 30th Celebration1 in 20
2. Paldea Evolved1 in 32
3. Scarlet & Violet1 in 32
4. Obsidian Flames1 in 32
5. 1511 in 32
6. Prismatic Evolutions1 in 45
7. Paradox Rift1 in 47
8. Paldean Fates1 in 58
9. Ascended Heroes1 in 69
10. Phantasmal Flames1 in 80
11. Perfect Order1 in 81
12. Chaos Rising1 in 83
13. Temporal Forces1 in 85
14. Twilight Masquerade1 in 85
15. Journey Together1 in 86
16. Surging Sparks1 in 87
17. Stellar Crown1 in 90
18. Destined Rivals1 in 92
19. Mega Evolution1 in 101

Mega Evolution has the toughest Special Illustration Rare odds of the 19 sets we track.

Main sets tend to sit at the bottom of this chart. They have more cards and more SIRs to share the luck, while special sets like 151 and Prismatic Evolutions are built to be kinder to openers. For the toughest odds in every rarity, the hardest single cards, and the products most likely to miss, see the worst pull rates.

151: the best set on paper, one of the worst in practice#

At its $4.49 MSRP, 151 would be one of the best opens we track: an average pack’s hits are worth about $8.04, or $1.79 per $1. But 151 came out in 2023, and its packs now sell for about $28.47 each. At that price, the same hits are worth just $0.28 per $1.

What this means if you like opening packs#

• Opening packs is entertainment. At today’s prices, every set we track returns less than it costs. Budget for the fun, not the profit.
• MSRP matters more than the set. The same set can be a decent open at MSRP and a poor one at secondary prices. Buy at or near MSRP when you can.
• Older and hyped sets at secondary prices are the worst opens. Buy their chase cards as singles.

For the other end of the list, see the best Pokémon packs to open, ranked by set and by product. If you’re after one card, our guide to pulling one specific SIR shows why buying the single wins, and the pack simulator lets you open a few hundred virtual packs at the measured rates to feel the swings for yourself.

Where these numbers come from#

Pull rates come from verified openings in our evidence registry; see each set page for sources. Card and pack prices are TCGplayer market prices; card prices are for ungraded, Near Mint cards. “Hits worth” uses each rarity’s pull rate times the average price of its cards, the same method our methodology page describes.