Mega Hyper RareMega Lucario ex
$226.78
1 in 2,500 packs
Pull rate analysis
Mega Evolution pull rates
Every rarity's odds from 1 verified opening, 5,100+ packs in all, plus your chances by product and what a pack is really worth.
$174.18
$170.26
$169.48
$137.17
In Pokémon Mega Evolution, a Special Illustration Rare turns up in about 1 in 101 packs (0.99%), from 51 hits in 5,165 packs across 1 verified opening, checked Oct 12, 2026. At today's prices the hits in an average pack are worth $2.07, against $8.81 for a loose pack.
- 5,165Packs measuredFrom 1 verified study
- 30%SIR in a booster boxAt least one in 36 packs
- $2.07Hit value / packAverage value vs. $8.81 loose pack
- Sep 26, 2025Release dateSet code ME1
Pull rate summary
How often each rarity turns up, based on every verified pack we have. “Specific card” assumes every card in a rarity is equally likely.
| Rarity | Odds per pack | 95% range | Sample | How sure we are |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Double RareSpecific card: 1 in 48 (10 cards) | 1 in 520.91% | 19.81%–22.05%±5% of the rate | 1,059 in 5,064packs, reconstructed | Very sureMEG-001 |
| Illustration RareSpecific card: 1 in 202 (22 cards) | 1 in 910.89% | 10.06%–11.78%±8% of the rate | 549 in 5,040packs, reconstructed | Very sureMEG-001 |
| Ultra RareSpecific card: 1 in 267 (22 cards) | 1 in 128.23% | 7.49%–9.01%±9% of the rate | 413 in 5,023packs, reconstructed | Very sureMEG-001 |
| Special Illustration RareSpecific card: 1 in 1,010 (10 cards) | 1 in 1010.99% | 0.74%–1.29%±27% of the rate | 51 in 5,165packs, reconstructed | Fairly sureMEG-001 |
| Mega Hyper RareSpecific card: 1 in 2,500 (2 cards) | 1 in 1,2500.08% | 0.03%–0.20%±98% of the rate | 4 in 4,798packs, reconstructed | Rough estimateMEG-001 |
Most valuable cards
Today's TCGplayer market price, and your odds of pulling each card in one pack if every card in its rarity is equally likely.
Mega Gardevoir ex
$174.18
1 in 2,500 packs
Mega Gardevoir ex
$170.26
1 in 1,010 packs
Mega Lucario ex
$169.48
1 in 1,010 packs
Mega Venusaur ex
$137.17
1 in 1,010 packs
SIR
Mega Latias ex
$72.50
1 in 1,010 packs
SIR
Mega Kangaskhan ex
$52.61
1 in 1,010 packs
SIR
Lillie's Determination
$51.90
1 in 1,010 packs
SIR
Mega Absol ex
$48.73
1 in 1,010 packs
SIR
Acerola's Mischief
$27.59
1 in 1,010 packs
SIR
Wally's Compassion
$21.09
1 in 1,010 packs
UR
Lillie's Determination
$19.65
1 in 267 packs
Prices as of Oct 12, 2026. Card images are shown for identification.
What are my odds?
| Rarity | Per pack | Chance of at least one in 36 | Packs for 50% / 90% |
|---|---|---|---|
| Double Rare | 1 in 5 | >99.9% | 3 / 10 |
| Illustration Rare | 1 in 9 | 98.4% (97.8%–98.9%) | 7 / 20 |
| Ultra Rare | 1 in 12 | 95.5% (93.9%–96.7%) | 9 / 27 |
| Special Illustration Rare | 1 in 101 | 30.1% (23.6%–37.2%) | 70 / 232 |
| Mega Hyper Rare | 1 in 1250 | 2.8% (1.0%–6.9%) | 867 / 2878 |
Ranges reflect the 95% uncertainty in the measured rate. Odds are independent per pack; no product guarantees a hit.
Your odds as you open more packs
Open Mega Evolution packs
0 packs openedEvery pack is drawn at Mega Evolution's measured pull rates, and every hit is a real card at today's price.
- Spent
- $0.00
- Pulled
- $0.00
- Net
- $0.00
$8.81 a pack · hits valued at what they'd sell for after fees
Auto speed
Default: one loose pack's TCGplayer market price today.
Open until I get…Auto-opens until you get it, then shows how your luck compares.
Your pulls
Every card you pull collects here. About 38% of packs have a hit.
Value is what you'd net selling each hit (13% fees + $0.30; under $1.50 counts as $0.05). Luck ranks your run against thousands of simulated runs of the same length. Most runs finish below the long-run average, because a few huge pulls drag the average up. Commons, uncommons and reverse holos aren't counted. Just for fun: each run is random.
Is it worth opening?
Simulates opening 36 packs using the measured pull rates and current card prices.
Booster box: $304 today · MSRP $162 (Scrydex, Oct 12, 2026). Sealed products sell well above MSRP once they're hard to find at retail.
Simulating…
Top chase cards
| Card | Market price | Per pack | Chance in 36 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mega Lucario ex #188 Mega Hyper Rare | $227 | 1 in 2,500 | 1.4% |
| Mega Gardevoir ex #187 Mega Hyper Rare | $174 | 1 in 2,500 | 1.4% |
| Mega Gardevoir ex #178 Special Illustration Rare | $170 | 1 in 1,010 | 3.5% |
| Mega Lucario ex #179 Special Illustration Rare | $169 | 1 in 1,010 | 3.5% |
| Mega Venusaur ex #177 Special Illustration Rare | $137 | 1 in 1,010 | 3.5% |
| Mega Latias ex #181 Special Illustration Rare | $72.50 | 1 in 1,010 | 3.5% |
| Mega Kangaskhan ex #182 Special Illustration Rare | $52.61 | 1 in 1,010 | 3.5% |
| Lillie's Determination #184 Special Illustration Rare | $51.90 | 1 in 1,010 | 3.5% |
Counts hits only (Double Rare, Ultra Rare, Illustration Rare, Special Illustration Rare, Mega Hyper Rare), valued at what you'd likely net selling them: market price minus 13% fees and $0.30 per card, with cards under $1.50 counted as bulk ($0.05). Commons, uncommons, regular rares and reverse holos are left out, so this understates total value slightly.
The pack layout for this set is provisional: some slot assignments come from secondary sources.
Not financial advice. Prices change daily; results are estimates, not guarantees.
Card prices: TCGplayer market price via Scrydex (66 cards), as of 2026-10-12. Sealed prices: Scrydex, Oct 12, 2026. Price paid defaults to today's market price; switch to MSRP or enter what you actually paid. Open in the full pack simulator.
Where a pack's value comes from
An average pack's hits are worth about $1.60 after selling fees, against a $4.49 MSRP (packs sell for about $8.81 today). Just 5 cards account for 36% of that.
The cards carrying the value
- Mega Gardevoir ex #178: $0.15 per pack (9%)
- Mega Lucario ex #179: $0.15 per pack (9%)
- Mega Venusaur ex #177: $0.12 per pack (7%)
- Mega Lucario ex #188: $0.08 per pack (5%)
- Vulpix #138: $0.08 per pack (5%)
What a hit is usually worth
Most cards in each rarity sell for far less than the few chase cards. On average you pull one card worth $20+ every 103 packs.
10 Under $2
7 Under $2, 12 $2–10, 3 $10–20
2 Under $2, 17 $2–10, 3 $10–20
1 $10–20, 3 $20–50, 6 $50+
2 $50+
Under $2 $2–10 $10–20 $20–50 $50+
Value per pack = chance of pulling each card × what you'd net selling it. Cards within a rarity are assumed equally likely. Price brackets use TCGplayer market price before fees.
Quick answers
- When did Pokémon Mega Evolution come out?
- Mega Evolution came out on Sep 26, 2025 in English.
- What are the chase cards in Mega Evolution?
- By today's market price: Mega Lucario ex (Mega Hyper Rare, $226.78, about 1 in 2,500 packs), Mega Gardevoir ex (Mega Hyper Rare, $174.18, about 1 in 2,500 packs), and Mega Gardevoir ex (Special Illustration Rare, $170.26, about 1 in 1,010 packs).
- Is Mega Evolution worth opening?
- On average, no: the hits in a pack are worth about $2.07 at today's prices, against $8.81 for a loose pack. Open for fun; buy the single if you want one card.
- Is a Mega Evolution booster box worth it?
- A booster box has 36 packs and sells for about $304. Its hits are worth about $75 on average, with a 30% chance of at least one Special Illustration Rare.
- How many packs are in a Mega Evolution Elite Trainer Box?
- 9 packs, for a 9% chance of at least one Special Illustration Rare.
Where these numbers come from
We only count openings we've checked against the original source. When several qualify, we add up the hits and packs across them.
TCGplayer Authentication CenterUsed in our numbers
Prices: Scrydex.
Rates are as published by the source; combined rates are total hits divided by total packs. Ranges are Jeffreys 95% intervals. How sure we are: “Very sure” when the range is within ±25% of the rate, “Fairly sure” within ±50%, otherwise “Rough estimate.”
How to cite this page
Poké Life, “Pokémon Mega Evolution pull rates,” https://poke-life.com/sets/mega-evolution/ (data checked Oct 12, 2026). CC BY 4.0.Free to share and adapt under CC BY 4.0. The rates change when we verify new openings, so include the date. A copy of the numbers that won't change: 2026-10-12 version (all versions).