Investigation6 min read
We audited pull rates on 24 websites. Half had errors.
We checked 42 pull-rate pages against the study each one cites. Figures on the wrong rarity, numbers from another set and double rounding turned up on some of the biggest pull-rate sites.
Investigation
12 of 24sites matched their own source on every page
New to pull rates? The terms in 30 seconds
- “1 in 92 packs”
- On average, you'd open 92 packs to pull one. It's an average, not a promise: you could hit it in pack 3 or go 300 without one.
- SIR (Special Illustration Rare)
- Full-art cards with special artwork. Usually a set's most valuable pulls.
- IR (Illustration Rare)
- Art cards of single Pokémon. More common than SIRs, and often collected as a set.
- Hyper Rare
- The gold cards. Among the rarest pulls in modern sets.
- Double Rare / Ultra Rare
- The ex and full-art cards that make up most of a set's hits.
- Booster box / ETB
- A booster box has 36 packs. An Elite Trainer Box (ETB) has 9, plus sleeves and accessories.
On this page
Search for Destined Rivals pull rates and one of the first results, pullrates.com, puts a Special Illustration Rare (SIR) at 1 in 86 packs. It credits TCGplayer’s study of more than 8,000 packs. TCGplayer’s article says 1 in 94 for any SIR. The number 1 in 86 is in that article, but it’s the odds of pulling one specific Double Rare.
That made us wonder how often this happens. So we checked every pull-rate page we could find for the 6 sets we track: 42 pages on 24 websites. We compared each one, figure by figure, against the study it cites, or against the study its numbers came from when it doesn’t cite one.
Key takeaways
- 12 of 24 sites matched their source on every page we checked. 6 had at least one page we graded “doesn’t match.”
- Almost everything traces back to one place: 30 of 42 pages use TCGplayer’s pack-opening studies.
- Three of the four sites with the most pull-rate pages, pullrates.com, TCGTalk and Pullnomics, didn’t fully match their source on any of their 14 pages.
- News sites that reported a study the week it came out, such as PokeBeach and Game Rant, got it right every time.
- Before you trust a pull rate, find the original study and check the number there.
How we graded each page#
Each page got one of three grades:
- Matches its source: every rate on the page matches the study, allowing for normal rounding.
- Partly matches: some rates differ, the page rebuilds percentages from rounded odds, or it blends studies into ranges without saying how.
- Doesn’t match: the rates don’t match the study the page credits, a figure belongs to a different rarity or set, or the page describes a study we couldn’t find any record of.
A site’s grade is its worst page. Here’s the scorecard.
| Site | Pages checked | Match | Partly | Don't match | Worst page |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| pullrates.com151, Destined Rivals, Prismatic Evolutions, Silver Tempest, Temporal Forces | 5 | – | 2 | 3 | Doesn't match |
| tcgtalk.comDestined Rivals, Prismatic Evolutions, Temporal Forces | 5 | – | 2 | 3 | Doesn't match |
| eathealthy365.comSilver Tempest, Temporal Forces | 2 | – | – | 2 | Doesn't match |
| cardchill.com151 | 1 | – | – | 1 | Doesn't match |
| tcgrocks.comTemporal Forces | 1 | – | – | 1 | Doesn't match |
| timesabout.co.ukSilver Tempest | 1 | – | – | 1 | Doesn't match |
| thepricedex.com151, 30th Celebration, Destined Rivals, Prismatic Evolutions, Temporal Forces | 5 | 4 | 1 | – | Partly matches |
| pullnomics.comDestined Rivals, Prismatic Evolutions, Silver Tempest, Temporal Forces | 4 | – | 4 | – | Partly matches |
| cardprice.comDestined Rivals | 1 | – | 1 | – | Partly matches |
| evolvault.comSilver Tempest | 1 | – | 1 | – | Partly matches |
| josephwriteranderson.comTemporal Forces | 1 | – | 1 | – | Partly matches |
| pokeforecast.com30th Celebration | 1 | – | 1 | – | Partly matches |
| pokebeach.com30th Celebration, Prismatic Evolutions, Temporal Forces | 3 | 3 | – | – | Matches its source |
| billsarchive.com30th Celebration | 1 | 1 | – | – | Matches its source |
| deltiasgaming.comDestined Rivals | 1 | 1 | – | – | Matches its source |
| dotesports.comPrismatic Evolutions | 1 | 1 | – | – | Matches its source |
| gamerant.comDestined Rivals | 1 | 1 | – | – | Matches its source |
| pokecompare.comPrismatic Evolutions | 1 | 1 | – | – | Matches its source |
| pokepatch.com151 | 1 | 1 | – | – | Matches its source |
| setpulls.com30th Celebration | 1 | 1 | – | – | Matches its source |
| tcg1.net151 | 1 | 1 | – | – | Matches its source |
| tcgcardinvestor.com30th Celebration | 1 | 1 | – | – | Matches its source |
| thetoploader.comTemporal Forces | 1 | 1 | – | – | Matches its source |
| treasurevaultau.com30th Celebration | 1 | 1 | – | – | Matches its source |
Five ways pull rates go wrong#
1. The right number on the wrong rarity
TCGplayer’s articles publish two kinds of odds: the chance of any card of a rarity, and the chance of one specific card. Mix them up and you get a number that looks plausible and is way off.
- pullrates.com, Destined Rivals: “1 in 86” for SIRs is TCGplayer’s odds for one specific Double Rare. The real SIR figure is 1 in 94.
- TCGRocks, Temporal Forces: its Double Rare “1/20” and specific-card “1/140” are TCGplayer’s ACE SPEC figures. Double Rares are actually 1 in 6.
- Pullnomics, Destined Rivals: Ultra Rare’s 1 in 16 is labeled “Any ex or above,” and there’s no Double Rare row at all.
2. Numbers from another set
pullrates.com’s Destined Rivals page shows the same five numbers as its Temporal Forces page, down to the percentage: 16.67%, 7.69%, 6.67%, 1.16% and 0.53%. Most of them are Temporal Forces’ rates, and its Hyper Rare figure, 1 in 188, matches neither set. TCGplayer measured 1 in 149 for Destined Rivals and 1 in 139 for Temporal Forces.
3. Rounding twice
TCGplayer gives each rate as a precise percentage and also as a rounded “1 in X” for readability. Some sites take the rounded version and turn it back into a percentage, which changes the number.
TCGplayer measured 151’s Double Rare rate at 13.28% and rounded it to “1 in 8.” pullrates.com turns 1 in 8 back into 12.50%. Prismatic Evolutions’ 16.51% becomes “1 in 6,” then 16.67%. The gap is small, but the precise figure was right there in the source.
4. Studies we couldn’t find
Some pages describe pack openings we couldn’t find any other record of:
- eathealthy365.com describes large studies for Temporal Forces and Silver Tempest. The Temporal Forces page cites 1,440- and 3,600-pack studies whose figures contradict each other. The Silver Tempest page is dated 2025 but quotes 2026 prices.
- CardChill cites a “TCGplayer 2,000-pack analysis” of 151. TCGplayer’s 151 study was about 1,500 packs, and its numbers differ.
- TCGTalk describes a Destined Rivals “case opening” of “100 booster packs total (one full case).” A case is 216 packs, and the page is dated April 2025, before the set’s May 30 release.
- Times About credits TCGplayer with Lugia V Alt Art odds of “1 in 674 to 684.” The 684 isn’t in TCGplayer’s article.
5. Someone else’s study, presented as your own
Several pages show TCGplayer’s numbers correctly but describe them as their own data, such as “1,000+ packs” (PokePatch), “5,000+ packs” measured (TCG Vault, tcg1.net) or an “8,000+ pack community aggregate” (TCGTalk). The figures are right, but readers can’t check them or see how big the sample really was.
Who got it right#
12 sites matched their source on every page we checked: pokebeach.com, billsarchive.com, deltiasgaming.com, dotesports.com, gamerant.com, pokecompare.com, pokepatch.com, setpulls.com, tcg1.net, tcgcardinvestor.com, thetoploader.com, treasurevaultau.com.
Most of them link the original study and copy its numbers as published, without recomputing them. Two, PokePatch and TCG Vault, have the right numbers but present them as their own, as described above. The Pricedex is close behind, matching on 4 of its 5 pages, though it credits “community data” rather than naming TCGplayer.
How to check a pull rate yourself#
- Find the original study. A real one says who opened the packs and roughly how many. If a page names a study but doesn’t link it, search for it.
- Check “any” against “specific.” “Any SIR” and “one specific SIR” differ by the number of SIRs in the set, often 10 times or more.
- Check that the percentage and the “1 in X” agree. 1 divided by the percentage should give the “1 in X.” If it doesn’t, one of them was copied from somewhere else.
- Check the date. A large opening published before a set’s release date is a red flag.
- Check the card counts. If a page says a set has 15 SIRs and the set list says 11, be suspicious of its odds too.
Our set pages link every study behind every rate, with its sample size and the date we checked it.
Every page we checked#
| Page | Grade | What we found |
|---|---|---|
| cardchill.com151 · No source named | Doesn't match | Cites a "TCGplayer 2,000-pack analysis" with HR 1/160 and SIR 1/80; contradicts TCGplayer. |
| eathealthy365.comSilver Tempest · No source named | Doesn't match | Describes a 105-box study; the page is dated 2025 but quotes 2026 prices, and we found no other record of the study. |
| eathealthy365.comTemporal Forces · No source named | Doesn't match | Describes 1,440- and 3,600-pack studies whose figures contradict each other; we found no other record of either. |
| pullrates.comDestined Rivals · Source: TCGplayer | Doesn't match | Attributes to TCGplayer but shows DR 1/6, IR 1/13, UR 1/15, SIR 1 in 86, HR 1 in 188. None match TCGplayer. All five are the figures on its own Temporal Forces page, percentages included (16.67%, 7.69%, 6.67%, 1.16%, 0.53%). TCGplayer's "1 in 86" for Destined Rivals is the odds of one specific Double Rare, not any SIR. |
| pullrates.comSilver Tempest · Source: TCGplayer | Doesn't match | Relabels tiers ("Holo Rare 1:3", "Ultra Rare 1:27", "Vmax Holo Rare 1:189"). |
| pullrates.comTemporal Forces · Source: TCGplayer | Doesn't match | Hyper Rare "1:188" does not match TCGplayer (1 in 139). Its Destined Rivals page repeats this page's figures, 1:188 included. Percentages back-computed from rounded "1 in X". |
| tcgrocks.comTemporal Forces · Source: TCGplayer | Doesn't match | Double Rare "1/20" and specific "1/140" are TCGplayer's ACE SPEC figures. |
| tcgtalk.comDestined Rivals · Source: TCGplayer | Doesn't match | States 15 SIRs and 2 Hyper Rares (set has 11 and 6). SIR 1.06% and HR 0.67% match TCGplayer but IR 8.33% and UR 6.25% do not. Prices from PriceCharting. |
| tcgtalk.comDestined Rivals · No source named | Doesn't match | "100 booster packs total (one full case)" (a case is 6 boxes, 216 packs), dated April 2025, before the set's May 30, 2025 release. Opener not named; no per-rarity counts. States SIR "~1 in 100" and gold "~1 in 50" (TCGplayer: 1 in 94 and 1 in 149). |
| tcgtalk.comPrismatic Evolutions · Source: Whatnot stream tallies compiled on X | Doesn't match | Headline rates come from pre-release Whatnot stream tallies but are labeled "published" and "semi-official"; UR "1 in 26" and specific Master Ball "1 in 2,073" don't match those tallies. |
| timesabout.co.ukSilver Tempest · Source: TCGplayer | Doesn't match | Attributes "1 in 674 to 684" to TCGplayer; 684 is not in the article. |
| cardprice.comDestined Rivals · Source: TCGplayer | Partly matches | Only SIR 1 in 94 matches; DR, UR, IR, HR figures differ. |
| evolvault.comSilver Tempest · Source: TCGplayer | Partly matches | Blends TCGplayer and DigitalTQ into ranges; own per-card splits differ from TCGplayer's. |
| josephwriteranderson.comTemporal Forces · Source: TCGplayer | Partly matches | Hyper Rare "1 in 129" (TCGplayer says 1 in 139). |
| pokeforecast.com30th Celebration · Source: Discord user Tommy13 | Partly matches | Same figures as The Pricedex (Classic 1 in 9.6, SIR 1 in 19, RGB 1 in 4,063) but credits "a community count, 4,201 packs". |
| pullnomics.comDestined Rivals · Source: TCGplayer | Partly matches | IR, SIR and HR match TCGplayer, but Double Rare is missing and Ultra Rare's 1 in 16 is labeled "Any ex or above". Its box values fill both gaps with an "era average". |
| pullnomics.comPrismatic Evolutions · Source: TCGplayer | Partly matches | Blends TCGplayer with pre-release Whatnot stream tallies into ranges. |
| pullnomics.comSilver Tempest · Source: TCGplayer | Partly matches | Same table as Evol Vault. |
| pullnomics.comTemporal Forces · No source named | Partly matches | SIR range "1 in 63–86" appears to blend in eathealthy365's unverifiable figure. |
| pullrates.com151 · Source: TCGplayer | Partly matches | Percentages back-computed from rounded "1 in X" values (e.g. DR 12.50%). |
| pullrates.comPrismatic Evolutions · Source: TCGplayer | Partly matches | Percentages recomputed from rounded "1 in X" values (e.g. DR 16.67%, UR 7.69%), not TCGplayer's. |
| tcgtalk.comPrismatic Evolutions · Source: TCGplayer | Partly matches | Uses TCGplayer's rates without crediting TCGplayer; UR 7.69% and ACE 4.76% are back-computed from rounded "1 in X", and Double Rare is given as "about 18%" (TCGplayer: 16.51%). |
| tcgtalk.comTemporal Forces · Source: TCGplayer | Partly matches | Uses TCGplayer's rates without crediting TCGplayer ("8,000+ pack community aggregate data"); SIR shown as 1.16% (TCGplayer: 1.17%). Prices from PriceCharting. |
| thepricedex.com30th Celebration · Source: Discord user Tommy13 | Partly matches | Uses the 4,063-pack stream count (RGB "1 in 4,063"), not TCGplayer, but shows Classic Collection 1 in 9.6 and SIR 1 in 19 where Wargamer reports 1 in 9.8 and 1 in 18. |
| billsarchive.com30th Celebration · Source: Discord user Tommy13 | Matches its source | Observed rates match Wargamer's report of the 4,063-pack count; headline rates are rounded to "the figure each one is converging on" and say so. |
| deltiasgaming.comDestined Rivals · Source: TCGplayer | Matches its source | All five rates and specific-card odds match TCGplayer; credits TCGplayer. |
| dotesports.comPrismatic Evolutions · Source: Whatnot stream tallies compiled on X | Matches its source | Every rate matches the source. |
| gamerant.comDestined Rivals · Source: TCGplayer | Matches its source | All five rates and specific-card odds match TCGplayer; credits TCGplayer. |
| pokebeach.com30th Celebration · Source: TCGplayer | Matches its source | Rounded "1 in X" only. |
| pokebeach.comPrismatic Evolutions · Source: TCGplayer | Matches its source | Every rate matches the source. |
| pokebeach.comTemporal Forces · Source: TCGplayer | Matches its source | Every rate matches the source. |
| pokecompare.comPrismatic Evolutions · Source: TCGplayer | Matches its source | All seven percentages match TCGplayer; credits TCGplayer. |
| pokepatch.com151 · Source: TCGplayer | Matches its source | Title claims "1,000+ packs" of its own data; figures are TCGplayer's. |
| setpulls.com30th Celebration · Source: TCGplayer | Matches its source | All five rates and margins match TCGplayer; credits TCGplayer. |
| tcg1.net151 · Source: TCGplayer | Matches its source | Claims "5,000+ packs" measured; values are TCGplayer's. |
| tcgcardinvestor.com30th Celebration · Source: Danny Phantump | Matches its source | Aggregates Danny Phantump, catspaw.tv and Kyky Rips (2,003 packs) and shows each opener's totals. |
| thepricedex.com151 · Source: TCGplayer | Matches its source | All five rates match TCGplayer to one decimal (SIR 1 in 32.2, HR 1 in 51.5). |
| thepricedex.comDestined Rivals · Source: TCGplayer | Matches its source | All five rates match TCGplayer to one decimal (e.g. SIR 1 in 94.3, HR 1 in 149.3). Credits "community data" rather than TCGplayer. |
| thepricedex.comPrismatic Evolutions · Source: TCGplayer | Matches its source | Rates match TCGplayer to one decimal (SIR 1 in 45.0, HR 1 in 178.6). |
| thepricedex.comTemporal Forces · Source: TCGplayer | Matches its source | All six rates match TCGplayer to one decimal (SIR 1 in 85.5, HR 1 in 138.9). |
| thetoploader.comTemporal Forces · Source: TCGplayer | Matches its source | Rates match TCGplayer. Its table, specific-card odds included, is identical to The Pricedex's; credits only "official data or community research". |
| treasurevaultau.com30th Celebration · Source: Discord user Tommy13 | Matches its source | Observed rates match Wargamer's report; credits Wargamer and Tommy13. |
How we did this#
We searched for pull-rate pages for each of the 6 sets we track (151, 30th Celebration, Destined Rivals, Prismatic Evolutions, Silver Tempest, Temporal Forces) and checked them between October 7 and October 9, 2026. Each page was compared, rarity by rarity, with the study it credits. When a page credits nothing, we compared it with the study its numbers match. We graded the page as it appeared on the day we checked it.
Pages change. If you run one of these sites and have fixed a page, let us know and we’ll recheck it and update its grade.