Pokémon pack opening simulator
Free. Open real packs at measured pull rates, with every hit priced daily at TCGplayer market value.
Open 30th Celebration packs
0 packs openedEvery pack is drawn at 30th Celebration's measured pull rates, and every hit is a real card at today's price.
- Spent
- $0.00
- Pulled
- $0.00
- Net
- $0.00
$12.93 a pack · hits valued at what they'd sell for after fees
Default: one loose pack's TCGplayer market price today.
Your pulls
Every card you pull collects here. About 49% of packs have a hit.
Value is what you'd net selling each hit (13% fees + $0.30; under $1.50 counts as $0.05). Luck ranks your run against thousands of simulated runs of the same length. Most runs finish below the long-run average, because a few huge pulls drag the average up. Commons, uncommons and reverse holos aren't counted. Just for fun: each run is random.
Is it worth opening?
Simulates opening 9 packs using the measured pull rates and current card prices.
Elite Trainer Box: $141 today · MSRP $49.99 (Scrydex, Oct 12, 2026). Sealed products sell well above MSRP once they're hard to find at retail.
Simulating…
Top chase cards
| Card | Market price | Per pack | Chance in 9 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lugia #CC-149/147 Classic Collection | $180 | 1 in 296 | 3.0% |
| Charizard #CC-4/102 Classic Collection | $143 | 1 in 296 | 3.0% |
| Magikarp #CC-203/193 Classic Collection | $87.99 | 1 in 296 | 3.0% |
| Mew ex #152 Special Illustration Rare | $85.02 | 1 in 205 | 4.3% |
| Gengar ex #154 Special Illustration Rare | $75.91 | 1 in 205 | 4.3% |
| Mew ex #158 Futuristic Rare | $60.77 | 1 in 241 | 3.7% |
| Pikachu ex #150 Special Illustration Rare | $58.50 | 1 in 205 | 4.3% |
| Gengar #CC-94/102 Classic Collection | $55.38 | 1 in 296 | 3.0% |
Counts hits only (Illustration Rare, Classic Collection, Double Rare, Special Illustration Rare, Futuristic Rare), valued at what you'd likely net selling them: market price minus 13% fees and $0.30 per card, with cards under $1.50 counted as bulk ($0.05). Commons, uncommons, regular rares and reverse holos are left out, so this understates total value slightly.
Not financial advice. Prices change daily; results are estimates, not guarantees.
Card prices: TCGplayer market price via Scrydex (75 cards), as of 2026-10-12. Sealed prices: Scrydex, Oct 12, 2026. Price per pack defaults to today's market price of the product you're buying, divided by its packs; switch to MSRP or enter what you actually paid. 30th Celebration pull rates, studies and sources →
Compare sets
Same model, every set, at MSRP ($4.49 and $3.99 a pack) and at what a loose pack sells for today. Only Crown Zenith, 151, 30th Celebration, Evolving Skies, and Paldean Fates return more than MSRP on average, and none does at today's pack prices, which run 1.3× to 11.0× MSRP.
| Set | Hits worth per pack | Pack price today | Returned at today's price | Returned at MSRP | 36 packs at MSRP get money back | Packs per $20+ card |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crown Zenith Provisional pack layout | $7.61 | $25.82 | 29% | 169% | 80.1% | 1 in 10 |
| 151 | $6.85 | $28.47 | 24% | 153% | 69.6% | 1 in 10 |
| 30th Celebration | $5.36 | $12.93 | 41% | 119% | 55.4% | 1 in 14 |
| Evolving Skies | $5.17 | $43.82 | 12% | 130% | 29.8% | 1 in 34 |
| Paldean Fates | $4.92 | $24.03 | 20% | 109% | 23.3% | 1 in 29 |
| Ascended Heroes Provisional pack layout | $3.48 | $11.90 | 29% | 78% | 20.2% | 1 in 35 |
| Paldea Evolved | $3.32 | $16.26 | 20% | 74% | 18.7% | 1 in 21 |
| Prismatic Evolutions | $3.29 | $13.91 | 24% | 73% | 20.7% | 1 in 41 |
| Lost Origin Provisional pack layout | $3.18 | $19.30 | 17% | 80% | 17.6% | 1 in 21 |
| Temporal Forces | $2.73 | $9.87 | 28% | 61% | 12.3% | 1 in 18 |
| Phantasmal Flames Provisional pack layout | $2.31 | $11.99 | 19% | 51% | 11.1% | 1 in 124 |
| Silver Tempest Provisional pack layout | $2.26 | $15.00 | 15% | 57% | 10.8% | 1 in 47 |
| Twilight Masquerade | $2.07 | $9.18 | 23% | 46% | 7.7% | 1 in 43 |
| Stellar Crown | $1.96 | $10.79 | 18% | 44% | 8.4% | 1 in 57 |
| Paradox Rift | $1.94 | $8.55 | 23% | 43% | 4.0% | 1 in 26 |
| Astral Radiance | $1.84 | $10.26 | 18% | 46% | 10.3% | 1 in 75 |
| Obsidian Flames | $1.83 | $12.58 | 15% | 41% | 3.6% | 1 in 34 |
| Destined Rivals | $1.82 | $8.70 | 21% | 40% | 8.5% | 1 in 54 |
| Scarlet & Violet | $1.80 | $8.91 | 20% | 40% | 1.7% | 1 in 29 |
| Mega Evolution Provisional pack layout | $1.60 | $8.81 | 18% | 36% | 10.6% | 1 in 103 |
| Surging Sparks | $1.55 | $8.76 | 18% | 34% | 7.4% | 1 in 52 |
| Journey Together | $1.02 | $6.25 | 16% | 23% | 0.3% | 1 in 103 |
| Perfect Order Provisional pack layout | $1.00 | $5.92 | 17% | 22% | 0.4% | 1 in 78 |
| Chaos Rising Provisional pack layout | $0.91 | $6.08 | 15% | 20% | 1.2% | 1 in 90 |
The first column is the most you can pay per pack and still break even on average. "Hits worth per pack" is the average net sale value of a pack's hits (after 13% fees and $0.30 a card; cards under $1.50 count as $0.05 bulk). "Pack price today" is the TCGplayer market price of one loose pack (Scrydex, Oct 12, 2026). "36 packs at MSRP get money back" is the share of 5,000 simulated 36-pack openings whose hits are worth at least 36 times the set's pack MSRP, including the uncertainty in each measured rate. "$20+ card" uses market price before fees. To combine products from several sets, use the pack mix calculator.
How the simulator works
The same evidence behind every set page, run as a model.
Pull rates
Come from published physical-opening studies, pooled when several qualify. Each set page lists the studies, sample sizes and 95% intervals.
Pack layout
Each pack has a few slots (the reverse-holo slots and the rare slot), and each slot produces at most one hit. Layouts marked provisional rely partly on secondary sources.
Card values
TCGplayer market prices, converted to what you'd net selling: 13% fees plus $0.30 per card, anything under $1.50 counted as bulk. Within a rarity, every card is equally likely.
Uncertainty
Switched on, each simulated opening redraws the pull rates from their measured range, so smaller studies produce wider outcomes.
Not counted
Commons, uncommons, regular rares, reverse holos, and any rarity without reliable per-card prices. Results slightly understate total value.
Not financial advice. Prices change daily; results are estimates, not guarantees.