RGB RareMew
$6,000
Odds not measured
Pull rate analysis
30th Celebration (30th Anniversary) pull rates
Every rarity's odds from 1 verified opening, 3,200+ packs in all, plus your chances by product and what a pack is really worth. Also searched as “30th Anniversary” or “Pokémon 30th Anniversary set”.
$180.26
$143.01
$87.99
$85.02
$75.91
In Pokémon 30th Celebration, a Special Illustration Rare turns up in about 1 in 20 packs (4.88%), from 159 hits in 3,256 packs across 1 verified opening, checked Oct 7, 2026. At today's prices the hits in an average pack are worth $6.44, against $12.93 for a loose pack.
- 3,256Packs measuredFrom 1 verified study
- 36%SIR in an elite trainer boxAt least one in 9 packs
- $6.44Hit value / packAverage value vs. $12.93 loose pack
- Sep 16, 2026Release date
Pull rate summary
How often each rarity turns up, based on every verified pack we have. “Specific card” assumes every card in a rarity is equally likely.
| Rarity | Odds per pack | 95% range | Sample | How sure we are |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Double RareSpecific card: 1 in 57 (12 cards) | 1 in 521.02% | 19.84%–22.26%±6% of the rate | 916 in 4,356packs, reconstructed | Very sure30C-001 |
| Illustration RareSpecific card: 1 in 91 (18 cards) | 1 in 519.72% | 18.38%–21.12%±7% of the rate | 639 in 3,240packs, reconstructed | Very sure30C-001 |
| Classic CollectionSpecific card: 1 in 296 (30 cards) | 1 in 1010.15% | 9.15%–11.23%±10% of the rate | 329 in 3,239packs, reconstructed | Very sure30C-001 |
| Special Illustration RareSpecific card: 1 in 205 (10 cards) | 1 in 204.88% | 4.18%–5.66%±15% of the rate | 159 in 3,256packs, reconstructed | Very sure30C-001 |
| Futuristic RareSpecific card: 1 in 241 (2 cards) | 1 in 1200.83% | 0.55%–1.17%±38% of the rate | 27 in 3,290packs, reconstructed | Fairly sure30C-001 |
| RGB Rare | No qualifying data yet | Estimate | ||
Most valuable cards
Today's TCGplayer market price, and your odds of pulling each card in one pack if every card in its rarity is equally likely.
RGB Rare
Mew
$3,747
Odds not measured
RGB Rare
Mew
$3,739
Odds not measured
Lugia
$180.26
1 in 296 packs
Charizard
$143.01
1 in 296 packs
Magikarp
$87.99
1 in 296 packs
Mew ex
$85.02
1 in 205 packs
Gengar ex
$75.91
1 in 205 packs
FUR
Mew ex
$60.77
1 in 241 packs
SIR
Pikachu ex
$58.50
1 in 205 packs
CC
Gengar
$55.38
1 in 296 packs
SIR
Mewtwo ex
$49.57
1 in 205 packs
Prices as of Oct 12, 2026. Card images are shown for identification.
Do other openings agree?
Most openings we found land close to our numbers. The few that don't are marked below. None of those are verified sources yet.
Every opening is a bit different by luck. "Agrees" means the difference is small enough to be luck of the draw. Openings marked “Not yet verified” aren't used in our numbers.
Double Rare
Our number: 1 in 5 packs
- TCGplayer Authentication Center4,356 packs1 in 5Agrees
- Discord user Tommy13Not yet verifiedtallied from live-streamed openings4,063 packs1 in 4Pulled more often
- Danny Phantump (YouTube)Not yet verified117 ETBs pooled from three stores1,053 packs1 in 4Pulled more often
- catspaw.tvNot yet verified850 packs1 in 4Agrees
- Kyky Rips (YouTube)Not yet verifiedrelease day100 packs1 in 4Agrees
Illustration Rare
Our number: 1 in 5 packs
- TCGplayer Authentication Center3,240 packs1 in 5Agrees
- Discord user Tommy13Not yet verifiedtallied from live-streamed openings4,063 packs1 in 5Agrees
- Danny Phantump (YouTube)Not yet verified117 ETBs pooled from three stores1,053 packs1 in 5Agrees
- catspaw.tvNot yet verified850 packs1 in 5Agrees
- Kyky Rips (YouTube)Not yet verifiedrelease day100 packs1 in 6Agrees
Classic Collection
Our number: 1 in 10 packs
- TCGplayer Authentication Center3,239 packs1 in 10Agrees
- Discord user Tommy13Not yet verifiedtallied from live-streamed openings4,063 packs1 in 10Agrees
- Danny Phantump (YouTube)Not yet verified117 ETBs pooled from three stores1,053 packs1 in 9Agrees
- catspaw.tvNot yet verified850 packs1 in 10Agrees
- Kyky Rips (YouTube)Not yet verifiedrelease day100 packs · small sample1 in 11Agrees
Special Illustration Rare
Our number: 1 in 20 packs
- TCGplayer Authentication Center3,256 packs1 in 20Agrees
- Discord user Tommy13Not yet verifiedtallied from live-streamed openings4,063 packs1 in 18Pulled more often
- Danny Phantump (YouTube)Not yet verified117 ETBs pooled from three stores1,053 packs1 in 15Pulled more often
- catspaw.tvNot yet verified850 packs1 in 21Agrees
- Kyky Rips (YouTube)Not yet verifiedrelease day100 packs · small sample1 in 17Agrees
Futuristic Rare
Our number: 1 in 120 packs
- TCGplayer Authentication Center3,290 packs1 in 122Agrees
- Discord user Tommy13Not yet verifiedtallied from live-streamed openings4,063 packs1 in 99Agrees
- Danny Phantump (YouTube)Not yet verified117 ETBs pooled from three stores1,053 packs · small sample1 in 105Agrees
- catspaw.tvNot yet verified850 packs · small sample1 in 61Pulled more often
- Kyky Rips (YouTube)Not yet verifiedrelease day100 packs · small sample1 in 100Agrees
How we decide if an opening agrees
Someone who opens 100 packs can easily land on 1 in 15 or 1 in 30 for a rarity that's really 1 in 20, just by luck. Bigger openings land closer to the true rate. For each opening we work out the range its pack count could plausibly produce (a 95% interval). If our number falls inside that range, the opening agrees. "Small sample" means that range is wide, so the opening can't confirm or rule out much on its own.
What are my odds?
| Rarity | Per pack | Chance of at least one in 9 | Packs for 50% / 90% |
|---|---|---|---|
| Double Rare | 1 in 5 | 88.0% (86.3%–89.6%) | 3 / 10 |
| Illustration Rare | 1 in 5 | 86.1% (83.9%–88.2%) | 4 / 11 |
| Classic Collection | 1 in 10 | 61.8% (57.8%–65.8%) | 7 / 22 |
| Special Illustration Rare | 1 in 20 | 36.3% (31.9%–40.8%) | 14 / 47 |
| Futuristic Rare | 1 in 120 | 7.2% (4.9%–10.1%) | 84 / 277 |
Ranges reflect the 95% uncertainty in the measured rate. Odds are independent per pack; no product guarantees a hit.
Your odds as you open more packs
Open 30th Celebration packs
0 packs openedEvery pack is drawn at 30th Celebration's measured pull rates, and every hit is a real card at today's price.
- Spent
- $0.00
- Pulled
- $0.00
- Net
- $0.00
$12.93 a pack · hits valued at what they'd sell for after fees
Auto speed
Default: one loose pack's TCGplayer market price today.
Open until I get…Auto-opens until you get it, then shows how your luck compares.
Your pulls
Every card you pull collects here. About 49% of packs have a hit.
Value is what you'd net selling each hit (13% fees + $0.30; under $1.50 counts as $0.05). Luck ranks your run against thousands of simulated runs of the same length. Most runs finish below the long-run average, because a few huge pulls drag the average up. Commons, uncommons and reverse holos aren't counted. Just for fun: each run is random.
Is it worth opening?
Simulates opening 9 packs using the measured pull rates and current card prices.
Elite Trainer Box: $141 today · MSRP $49.99 (Scrydex, Oct 12, 2026). Sealed products sell well above MSRP once they're hard to find at retail.
Simulating…
Top chase cards
| Card | Market price | Per pack | Chance in 9 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lugia #CC-149/147 Classic Collection | $180 | 1 in 296 | 3.0% |
| Charizard #CC-4/102 Classic Collection | $143 | 1 in 296 | 3.0% |
| Magikarp #CC-203/193 Classic Collection | $87.99 | 1 in 296 | 3.0% |
| Mew ex #152 Special Illustration Rare | $85.02 | 1 in 205 | 4.3% |
| Gengar ex #154 Special Illustration Rare | $75.91 | 1 in 205 | 4.3% |
| Mew ex #158 Futuristic Rare | $60.77 | 1 in 241 | 3.7% |
| Pikachu ex #150 Special Illustration Rare | $58.50 | 1 in 205 | 4.3% |
| Gengar #CC-94/102 Classic Collection | $55.38 | 1 in 296 | 3.0% |
Counts hits only (Illustration Rare, Classic Collection, Double Rare, Special Illustration Rare, Futuristic Rare), valued at what you'd likely net selling them: market price minus 13% fees and $0.30 per card, with cards under $1.50 counted as bulk ($0.05). Commons, uncommons, regular rares and reverse holos are left out, so this understates total value slightly.
Not financial advice. Prices change daily; results are estimates, not guarantees.
Card prices: TCGplayer market price via Scrydex (75 cards), as of 2026-10-12. Sealed prices: Scrydex, Oct 12, 2026. Price paid defaults to today's market price; switch to MSRP or enter what you actually paid. Open in the full pack simulator.
Where a pack's value comes from
An average pack's hits are worth about $5.36 after selling fees, against a $4.49 MSRP (packs sell for about $12.93 today). Just 5 cards account for 35% of that.
The cards carrying the value
- Lugia #CC-149/147: $0.53 per pack (10%)
- Charizard #CC-4/102: $0.42 per pack (8%)
- Mew ex #152: $0.36 per pack (7%)
- Gengar ex #154: $0.32 per pack (6%)
- Magikarp #CC-203/193: $0.26 per pack (5%)
What a hit is usually worth
Most cards in each rarity sell for far less than the few chase cards. On average you pull one card worth $20+ every 14 packs.
5 Under $2, 11 $2–10, 2 $10–20
13 $2–10, 8 $10–20, 5 $20–50, 4 $50+
11 Under $2, 1 $2–10
3 $10–20, 4 $20–50, 3 $50+
1 $20–50, 1 $50+
Under $2 $2–10 $10–20 $20–50 $50+
Value per pack = chance of pulling each card × what you'd net selling it. Cards within a rarity are assumed equally likely. Price brackets use TCGplayer market price before fees.
Quick answers
- When did Pokémon 30th Celebration come out?
- 30th Celebration came out on Sep 16, 2026 in English.
- What are the chase cards in 30th Celebration?
- By today's market price: Lugia (Classic Collection, $180.26, about 1 in 296 packs), Charizard (Classic Collection, $143.01, about 1 in 296 packs), and Magikarp (Classic Collection, $87.99, about 1 in 296 packs).
- Is 30th Celebration worth opening?
- On average, no: the hits in a pack are worth about $6.44 at today's prices, against $12.93 for a loose pack. Open for fun; buy the single if you want one card.
- How many packs are in a 30th Celebration Elite Trainer Box?
- 9 packs, for a 36% chance of at least one Special Illustration Rare.
Where these numbers come from
We only count openings we've checked against the original source. When several qualify, we add up the hits and packs across them.
TCGplayer Authentication CenterUsed in our numbers
Danny Phantump (YouTube), 117 ETBs pooled from three storesNot yet verified
catspaw.tvNot yet verified
Kyky Rips (YouTube), release dayNot yet verified
Discord user Tommy13, tallied from live-streamed openingsNot yet verified
Prices: Scrydex.
Rates are as published by the source; combined rates are total hits divided by total packs. Ranges are Jeffreys 95% intervals. How sure we are: “Very sure” when the range is within ±25% of the rate, “Fairly sure” within ±50%, otherwise “Rough estimate.”
How to cite this page
Poké Life, “Pokémon 30th Celebration pull rates,” https://poke-life.com/sets/30th-celebration/ (data checked Oct 7, 2026). CC BY 4.0.Free to share and adapt under CC BY 4.0. The rates change when we verify new openings, so include the date. A copy of the numbers that won't change: 2026-10-12 version (all versions).