Pull rate analysis
The best Pokémon packs to open, ranked by odds and value
Every set and sealed product we track, ranked by how much card value it returns per dollar and what it costs on average to pull a Special Illustration Rare.
156,700+ packs measured across all sets
Pokémon TCG pull rates, prices & card values
Odds traced to real pack openings, today's card and sealed prices, full card lists, and a straight answer on what's worth opening.
Try it · 30th Celebration
Open a pack
Each pack's hit slots are drawn at 30th Celebration's measured rates. You see its 5 best cards.
- 24sets measured
- 5,426cards priced
- 156,700+packs of evidence
- 25openings cited
Featured set
30th Celebration
Pull rates from 3,200+ observed packs, prices for 191 cards, and your odds for every product. Calculated from the observed rate, an Elite Trainer Box (9 packs) has a 36% chance of at least one Special Illustration Rare, treating each pack as independent.
Top chase cards
$180.26
$143.01
$87.99
$85.02
$75.91
Set market value
$14,961
One copy of each priced card. The top 3 are 90% of it
Total cards
191
75 hits across 6 rarities
Top card (market)
Lugia (CC)
$180.26
Observed SIR rate
1 in 20 packs
High evidence 159 in 3,256
Odds by product Calculated
Simulator →| Product | ≥1 SIR | ≥1 FUR | IR pulls |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 pack1 pack | 5% | <1% | 0.2 |
| Booster bundle6 packs | 26% | 5% | 1.2 |
| Elite Trainer Box9 packs | 36% | 7% | 1.8 |
| Pokémon Center ETB11 packs | 42% | 9% | 2.2 |
| Ultra-Premium Collection29 packs | 77% | 21% | 5.7 |
Calculated from the observed per-pack rates, treating each pack as independent. No product guarantees a hit.
Pull rate highlights Observed
Full data →3,200+ packs · TCGplayer Authentication Center
Verified Oct 7, 2026
Hit value per pack Estimated
All sets →- Expected market value of the hits in one pack
- Pack price today (MSRP where we have none)
- MSRP
A green bar passes the pack price: the hits are worth more than the pack, on average. Commons and reverse holos aren't counted.
Most valuable cards
View all cards →Latest research
View all articles →Investigation
We audited pull rates on 24 websites. Half had errors.
We checked 42 pull-rate pages against the study each one cites. Figures on the wrong rarity, numbers from another set and double rounding turned up on some of the biggest pull-rate sites.
Guide
Pokémon packs explained: booster box vs ETB vs booster bundle
What's inside each sealed Pokémon product, what it costs per pack at MSRP and today, and your odds of a Special Illustration Rare in each, using measured pull rates.
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