SIRMew ex
$865.73
1 in 465 packs
Pull rate analysis
Paldean Fates pull rates
Every rarity's odds from 1 verified opening, 1,800+ packs in all, plus your chances by product and what a pack is really worth.
$257.14
$165.03
$73.91
$49.09
In Pokémon Paldean Fates, a Special Illustration Rare turns up in about 1 in 58 packs (1.72%), from 31 hits in 1,804 packs across 1 verified opening, checked Oct 12, 2026. At today's prices the hits in an average pack are worth $5.95, against $24.03 for a loose pack.
- 1,804Packs measuredFrom 1 verified study
- 14%SIR in an elite trainer boxAt least one in 9 packs
- $5.95Hit value / packAverage value vs. $24.03 loose pack
- Jan 26, 2024Release dateSet code SV4.5
Pull rate summary
How often each rarity turns up, based on every verified pack we have. “Specific card” assumes every card in a rarity is equally likely.
| Rarity | Odds per pack | 95% range | Sample | How sure we are |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Double RareSpecific card: 1 in 63 (10 cards) | 1 in 615.89% | 14.27%–17.65%±11% of the rate | 286 in 1,798packs, reconstructed | Very surePAF-001 |
| Ultra RareSpecific card: 1 in 76 (5 cards) | 1 in 156.61% | 5.55%–7.86%±17% of the rate | 119 in 1,793packs, reconstructed | Very surePAF-001 |
| Shiny RareSpecific card: 1 in 472 (120 cards) | 1 in 425.44% | 23.47%–27.49%±8% of the rate | 459 in 1,804packs, reconstructed | Very surePAF-001 |
| Shiny Ultra RareSpecific card: 1 in 155 (12 cards) | 1 in 137.72% | 6.57%–9.04%±16% of the rate | 140 in 1,809packs, reconstructed | Very surePAF-001 |
| Illustration RareSpecific card: 1 in 42 (3 cards) | 1 in 147.22% | 6.09%–8.49%±17% of the rate | 129 in 1,787packs, reconstructed | Very surePAF-001 |
| Special Illustration RareSpecific card: 1 in 465 (8 cards) | 1 in 581.72% | 1.19%–2.40%±35% of the rate | 31 in 1,804packs, reconstructed | Fairly surePAF-001 |
| Hyper RareSpecific card: 1 in 373 (6 cards) | 1 in 621.61% | 1.10%–2.26%±36% of the rate | 29 in 1,809packs, reconstructed | Fairly surePAF-001 |
Most valuable cards
Today's TCGplayer market price, and your odds of pulling each card in one pack if every card in its rarity is equally likely.
Charizard ex
$257.14
1 in 465 packs
Gardevoir ex
$165.03
1 in 465 packs
Pikachu
$73.91
1 in 472 packs
Snorlax
$49.09
1 in 472 packs
Shiny Rare
Mimikyu
$48.25
1 in 472 packs
Shiny Rare
Charmander
$40.32
1 in 472 packs
Shiny Rare
Ditto
$38.12
1 in 472 packs
Shiny Rare
Maushold
$30.34
1 in 472 packs
Shiny Ultra Rare
Mew ex
$28.52
1 in 155 packs
Shiny Rare
Tandemaus
$27.31
1 in 472 packs
SIR
Iono
$24.44
1 in 465 packs
Prices as of Oct 12, 2026. Card images are shown for identification.
What are my odds?
| Rarity | Per pack | Chance of at least one in 9 | Packs for 50% / 90% |
|---|---|---|---|
| Double Rare | 1 in 6 | 78.9% (75.0%–82.6%) | 5 / 14 |
| Ultra Rare | 1 in 15 | 46.0% (40.2%–52.1%) | 11 / 34 |
| Shiny Rare | 1 in 4 | 92.9% (91.0%–94.5%) | 3 / 8 |
| Shiny Ultra Rare | 1 in 13 | 51.5% (45.8%–57.4%) | 9 / 29 |
| Illustration Rare | 1 in 14 | 49.1% (43.2%–55.0%) | 10 / 31 |
| Special Illustration Rare | 1 in 58 | 14.5% (10.2%–19.6%) | 40 / 133 |
| Hyper Rare | 1 in 62 | 13.6% (9.5%–18.6%) | 43 / 142 |
Ranges reflect the 95% uncertainty in the measured rate. Odds are independent per pack; no product guarantees a hit.
Your odds as you open more packs
Open Paldean Fates packs
0 packs openedEvery pack is drawn at Paldean Fates's measured pull rates, and every hit is a real card at today's price.
- Spent
- $0.00
- Pulled
- $0.00
- Net
- $0.00
$24.03 a pack · hits valued at what they'd sell for after fees
Auto speed
Default: one loose pack's TCGplayer market price today.
Open until I get…Auto-opens until you get it, then shows how your luck compares.
Your pulls
Every card you pull collects here. About 54% of packs have a hit.
Value is what you'd net selling each hit (13% fees + $0.30; under $1.50 counts as $0.05). Luck ranks your run against thousands of simulated runs of the same length. Most runs finish below the long-run average, because a few huge pulls drag the average up. Commons, uncommons and reverse holos aren't counted. Just for fun: each run is random.
Is it worth opening?
Simulates opening 9 packs using the measured pull rates and current card prices.
Elite Trainer Box: $432 today · MSRP $49.99 (Scrydex, Oct 12, 2026). Sealed products sell well above MSRP once they're hard to find at retail.
Simulating…
Top chase cards
| Card | Market price | Per pack | Chance in 9 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mew ex #232 Special Illustration Rare | $866 | 1 in 465 | 1.9% |
| Charizard ex #234 Special Illustration Rare | $257 | 1 in 465 | 1.9% |
| Gardevoir ex #233 Special Illustration Rare | $165 | 1 in 465 | 1.9% |
| Pikachu #131 Shiny Rare | $73.91 | 1 in 472 | 1.9% |
| Snorlax #202 Shiny Rare | $49.09 | 1 in 472 | 1.9% |
| Mimikyu #160 Shiny Rare | $48.25 | 1 in 472 | 1.9% |
| Charmander #109 Shiny Rare | $40.32 | 1 in 472 | 1.9% |
| Ditto #201 Shiny Rare | $38.12 | 1 in 472 | 1.9% |
Counts hits only (Double Rare, Ultra Rare, Shiny Rare, Shiny Ultra Rare, Illustration Rare, Special Illustration Rare, Hyper Rare), valued at what you'd likely net selling them: market price minus 13% fees and $0.30 per card, with cards under $1.50 counted as bulk ($0.05). Commons, uncommons, regular rares and reverse holos are left out, so this understates total value slightly.
Not financial advice. Prices change daily; results are estimates, not guarantees.
Card prices: TCGplayer market price via Scrydex (164 cards), as of 2026-10-12. Sealed prices: Scrydex, Oct 12, 2026. Price paid defaults to today's market price; switch to MSRP or enter what you actually paid. Open in the full pack simulator.
Where a pack's value comes from
An average pack's hits are worth about $4.92 after selling fees, against a $4.49 MSRP (packs sell for about $24.03 today). Just 5 cards account for 55% of that.
The cards carrying the value
- Mew ex #232: $1.62 per pack (33%)
- Charizard ex #234: $0.48 per pack (10%)
- Gardevoir ex #233: $0.31 per pack (6%)
- Mew ex #216: $0.16 per pack (3%)
- Pikachu #131: $0.14 per pack (3%)
What a hit is usually worth
Most cards in each rarity sell for far less than the few chase cards. On average you pull one card worth $20+ every 29 packs.
9 Under $2, 1 $2–10
5 Under $2
3 Under $2, 90 $2–10, 19 $10–20, 7 $20–50, 1 $50+
6 Under $2, 5 $2–10, 1 $20–50
1 Under $2, 2 $2–10
2 $2–10, 1 $10–20, 2 $20–50, 3 $50+
3 $2–10, 3 $10–20
Under $2 $2–10 $10–20 $20–50 $50+
Value per pack = chance of pulling each card × what you'd net selling it. Cards within a rarity are assumed equally likely. Price brackets use TCGplayer market price before fees.
Quick answers
- When did Pokémon Paldean Fates come out?
- Paldean Fates came out on Jan 26, 2024 in English.
- What are the chase cards in Paldean Fates?
- By today's market price: Mew ex (Special Illustration Rare, $865.73, about 1 in 465 packs), Charizard ex (Special Illustration Rare, $257.14, about 1 in 465 packs), and Gardevoir ex (Special Illustration Rare, $165.03, about 1 in 465 packs).
- Is Paldean Fates worth opening?
- On average, no: the hits in a pack are worth about $5.95 at today's prices, against $24.03 for a loose pack. Open for fun; buy the single if you want one card.
- How many packs are in a Paldean Fates Elite Trainer Box?
- 9 packs, for a 14% chance of at least one Special Illustration Rare.
Where these numbers come from
We only count openings we've checked against the original source. When several qualify, we add up the hits and packs across them.
TCGplayer Authentication CenterUsed in our numbers
Prices: Scrydex.
Rates are as published by the source; combined rates are total hits divided by total packs. Ranges are Jeffreys 95% intervals. How sure we are: “Very sure” when the range is within ±25% of the rate, “Fairly sure” within ±50%, otherwise “Rough estimate.”
How to cite this page
Poké Life, “Pokémon Paldean Fates pull rates,” https://poke-life.com/sets/paldean-fates/ (data checked Oct 12, 2026). CC BY 4.0.Free to share and adapt under CC BY 4.0. The rates change when we verify new openings, so include the date. A copy of the numbers that won't change: 2026-10-12 version (all versions).