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SIR odds for every set
How often a Special Illustration Rare turns up, and your chance of at least one in the products people actually buy. Every number comes from verified pack openings.
Chance of at least one SIR
Sorted from kindest to toughest odds. Darker cells mean better chances.
| Set | SIR odds per pack | 1 pack1 pack | Booster bundle6 packs | Elite Trainer Box9 packs | Booster box36 packs | Packs for 50% / 90% | One specific SIR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30th CelebrationVery sure | 1 in 20 | 5% | 26% | 36% | 83% | 14 / 47 | 1 in 20510 SIRs in set |
| Paldea EvolvedVery sure | 1 in 32 | 3% | 18% | 25% | 69% | 22 / 72 | 1 in 47315 SIRs in set |
| Scarlet & VioletVery sure | 1 in 32 | 3% | 17% | 25% | 68% | 22 / 72 | 1 in 31710 SIRs in set |
| Obsidian FlamesVery sure | 1 in 32 | 3% | 17% | 25% | 68% | 22 / 73 | 1 in 1926 SIRs in set |
| 151Fairly sure | 1 in 32 | 3% | 17% | 25% | 68% | 22 / 73 | 1 in 2257 SIRs in set |
| Prismatic EvolutionsFairly sure | 1 in 45 | 2% | 13% | 18% | 55% | 31 / 103 | 1 in 1,44132 SIRs in set |
| Paradox RiftVery sure | 1 in 47 | 2% | 12% | 17% | 54% | 33 / 108 | 1 in 71115 SIRs in set |
| Paldean FatesFairly sure | 1 in 58 | 2% | 10% | 14% | 46% | 40 / 133 | 1 in 4658 SIRs in set |
| Ascended HeroesFairly sure | 1 in 69 | 1% | 8% | 12% | 41% | 48 / 159 | 1 in 1,52822 SIRs in set |
| Phantasmal FlamesVery sure | 1 in 80 | 1% | 7% | 11% | 36% | 56 / 184 | 1 in 4005 SIRs in set |
| Perfect OrderFairly sure | 1 in 81 | 1% | 7% | 11% | 36% | 57 / 187 | 1 in 4886 SIRs in set |
| Chaos RisingVery sure | 1 in 83 | 1% | 7% | 10% | 35% | 57 / 190 | 1 in 4966 SIRs in set |
| Temporal ForcesVery sure | 1 in 85 | 1% | 7% | 10% | 35% | 59 / 196 | 1 in 85510 SIRs in set |
| Twilight MasqueradeVery sure | 1 in 85 | 1% | 7% | 10% | 35% | 59 / 196 | 1 in 94011 SIRs in set |
| Journey TogetherVery sure | 1 in 86 | 1% | 7% | 10% | 34% | 60 / 198 | 1 in 5176 SIRs in set |
| Surging SparksVery sure | 1 in 87 | 1% | 7% | 10% | 34% | 60 / 200 | 1 in 95711 SIRs in set |
| Stellar CrownVery sure | 1 in 90 | 1% | 6% | 10% | 33% | 63 / 207 | 1 in 5416 SIRs in set |
| Destined RivalsVery sure | 1 in 92 | 1% | 6% | 9% | 33% | 64 / 211 | 1 in 1,00911 SIRs in set |
| Mega EvolutionFairly sure | 1 in 101 | <1% | 6% | 9% | 30% | 70 / 232 | 1 in 1,01010 SIRs in set |
Each pack is independent, so no product guarantees an SIR. “One specific SIR” assumes every SIR in a set is equally likely. No SIR rate yet for Astral Radiance, Crown Zenith, Evolving Skies, Lost Origin, Silver Tempest.
Reading these odds
“1 in 92” isn't a countdown
Opening 91 packs without an SIR doesn't make the next one more likely. Every pack starts fresh, which is why even a booster box can come up empty.
Any SIR vs. the one you want
Pulling an SIR and pulling the SIR you're chasing are very different odds. For one card, see how many packs or whether to just buy the single.
Where the numbers come from
Verified physical openings only, combined when they agree. Each set page lists every opening and its sample size. Our methodology.