SIRMega Charizard X ex
$634.87
1 in 400 packs
Pull rate analysis
Phantasmal Flames pull rates
Every rarity's odds from 1 verified opening, 4,900+ packs in all, plus your chances by product and what a pack is really worth.
$210.48
$20.07
$17.63
$16.13
In Pokémon Phantasmal Flames, a Special Illustration Rare turns up in about 1 in 80 packs (1.25%), from 62 hits in 4,934 packs across 1 verified opening, checked Oct 12, 2026. At today's prices the hits in an average pack are worth $2.87, against $11.99 for a loose pack.
- 4,934Packs measuredFrom 1 verified study
- 36%SIR in a booster boxAt least one in 36 packs
- $2.87Hit value / packAverage value vs. $11.99 loose pack
- Nov 14, 2025Release dateSet code ME2
Pull rate summary
How often each rarity turns up, based on every verified pack we have. “Specific card” assumes every card in a rarity is equally likely.
| Rarity | Odds per pack | 95% range | Sample | How sure we are |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Double RareSpecific card: 1 in 48 (10 cards) | 1 in 520.77% | 19.67%–21.91%±5% of the rate | 1,047 in 5,039packs, reconstructed | Very surePFL-001 |
| Illustration RareSpecific card: 1 in 119 (13 cards) | 1 in 910.97% | 10.14%–11.86%±8% of the rate | 557 in 5,073packs, reconstructed | Very surePFL-001 |
| Ultra RareSpecific card: 1 in 211 (17 cards) | 1 in 128.06% | 7.34%–8.84%±9% of the rate | 408 in 5,061packs, reconstructed | Very surePFL-001 |
| Special Illustration RareSpecific card: 1 in 400 (5 cards) | 1 in 801.25% | 0.97%–1.60%±25% of the rate | 62 in 4,934packs, reconstructed | Very surePFL-001 |
| Mega Hyper RareSpecific card: 1 in 1,250 (1 cards) | 1 in 1,2500.08% | 0.03%–0.20%±98% of the rate | 4 in 4,798packs, reconstructed | Rough estimatePFL-001 |
Most valuable cards
Today's TCGplayer market price, and your odds of pulling each card in one pack if every card in its rarity is equally likely.
Mega Charizard X ex
$210.48
1 in 1,250 packs
Mega Charizard X ex
$20.07
1 in 211 packs
Dawn
$17.63
1 in 400 packs
Mega Sharpedo ex
$16.13
1 in 400 packs
IR
Meowth
$14.43
1 in 119 packs
SIR
Mega Lopunny ex
$12.71
1 in 400 packs
SIR
Rotom ex
$12.16
1 in 400 packs
IR
Piplup
$11.66
1 in 119 packs
UR
Dawn
$5.30
1 in 211 packs
DR
Mega Charizard X ex
$5.13
1 in 48 packs
IR
Wigglytuff
$4.73
1 in 119 packs
Prices as of Oct 12, 2026. Card images are shown for identification.
What are my odds?
| Rarity | Per pack | Chance of at least one in 36 | Packs for 50% / 90% |
|---|---|---|---|
| Double Rare | 1 in 5 | >99.9% | 3 / 10 |
| Illustration Rare | 1 in 9 | 98.5% (97.9%–98.9%) | 6 / 20 |
| Ultra Rare | 1 in 12 | 95.1% (93.6%–96.4%) | 9 / 28 |
| Special Illustration Rare | 1 in 80 | 36.4% (29.7%–44.0%) | 56 / 184 |
| Mega Hyper Rare | 1 in 1250 | 2.8% (1.0%–6.9%) | 867 / 2878 |
Ranges reflect the 95% uncertainty in the measured rate. Odds are independent per pack; no product guarantees a hit.
Your odds as you open more packs
Open Phantasmal Flames packs
0 packs openedEvery pack is drawn at Phantasmal Flames's measured pull rates, and every hit is a real card at today's price.
- Spent
- $0.00
- Pulled
- $0.00
- Net
- $0.00
$11.99 a pack · hits valued at what they'd sell for after fees
Auto speed
Default: one loose pack's TCGplayer market price today.
Open until I get…Auto-opens until you get it, then shows how your luck compares.
Your pulls
Every card you pull collects here. About 38% of packs have a hit.
Value is what you'd net selling each hit (13% fees + $0.30; under $1.50 counts as $0.05). Luck ranks your run against thousands of simulated runs of the same length. Most runs finish below the long-run average, because a few huge pulls drag the average up. Commons, uncommons and reverse holos aren't counted. Just for fun: each run is random.
Is it worth opening?
Simulates opening 36 packs using the measured pull rates and current card prices.
Booster box: $395 today · MSRP $162 (Scrydex, Oct 12, 2026). Sealed products sell well above MSRP once they're hard to find at retail.
Simulating…
Top chase cards
| Card | Market price | Per pack | Chance in 36 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mega Charizard X ex #125 Special Illustration Rare | $635 | 1 in 400 | 8.6% |
| Mega Charizard X ex #130 Mega Hyper Rare | $210 | 1 in 1,250 | 2.8% |
| Mega Charizard X ex #109 Ultra Rare | $20.07 | 1 in 211 | 15.7% |
| Dawn #129 Special Illustration Rare | $17.63 | 1 in 400 | 8.6% |
| Mega Sharpedo ex #127 Special Illustration Rare | $16.13 | 1 in 400 | 8.6% |
| Meowth #106 Illustration Rare | $14.43 | 1 in 119 | 26.3% |
| Mega Lopunny ex #128 Special Illustration Rare | $12.71 | 1 in 400 | 8.6% |
| Rotom ex #126 Special Illustration Rare | $12.16 | 1 in 400 | 8.6% |
Counts hits only (Double Rare, Ultra Rare, Illustration Rare, Special Illustration Rare, Mega Hyper Rare), valued at what you'd likely net selling them: market price minus 13% fees and $0.30 per card, with cards under $1.50 counted as bulk ($0.05). Commons, uncommons, regular rares and reverse holos are left out, so this understates total value slightly.
The pack layout for this set is provisional: some slot assignments come from secondary sources.
Not financial advice. Prices change daily; results are estimates, not guarantees.
Card prices: TCGplayer market price via Scrydex (46 cards), as of 2026-10-12. Sealed prices: Scrydex, Oct 12, 2026. Price paid defaults to today's market price; switch to MSRP or enter what you actually paid. Open in the full pack simulator.
Where a pack's value comes from
An average pack's hits are worth about $2.31 after selling fees, against a $4.49 MSRP (packs sell for about $11.99 today). Just 5 cards account for 78% of that.
The cards carrying the value
- Mega Charizard X ex #125: $1.38 per pack (60%)
- Mega Charizard X ex #130: $0.15 per pack (6%)
- Meowth #106: $0.10 per pack (4%)
- Mega Charizard X ex #13: $0.09 per pack (4%)
- Piplup #98: $0.08 per pack (4%)
What a hit is usually worth
Most cards in each rarity sell for far less than the few chase cards. On average you pull one card worth $20+ every 124 packs.
8 Under $2, 2 $2–10
14 Under $2, 2 $2–10, 1 $20–50
3 Under $2, 8 $2–10, 2 $10–20
4 $10–20, 1 $50+
1 $50+
Under $2 $2–10 $10–20 $20–50 $50+
Value per pack = chance of pulling each card × what you'd net selling it. Cards within a rarity are assumed equally likely. Price brackets use TCGplayer market price before fees.
Quick answers
- When did Pokémon Phantasmal Flames come out?
- Phantasmal Flames came out on Nov 14, 2025 in English.
- What are the chase cards in Phantasmal Flames?
- By today's market price: Mega Charizard X ex (Special Illustration Rare, $634.87, about 1 in 400 packs), Mega Charizard X ex (Mega Hyper Rare, $210.48, about 1 in 1,250 packs), and Mega Charizard X ex (Ultra Rare, $20.07, about 1 in 211 packs).
- Is Phantasmal Flames worth opening?
- On average, no: the hits in a pack are worth about $2.87 at today's prices, against $11.99 for a loose pack. Open for fun; buy the single if you want one card.
- Is a Phantasmal Flames booster box worth it?
- A booster box has 36 packs and sells for about $395. Its hits are worth about $103 on average, with a 36% chance of at least one Special Illustration Rare.
- How many packs are in a Phantasmal Flames Elite Trainer Box?
- 9 packs, for an 11% chance of at least one Special Illustration Rare.
Where these numbers come from
We only count openings we've checked against the original source. When several qualify, we add up the hits and packs across them.
TCGplayer Authentication CenterUsed in our numbers
Prices: Scrydex.
Rates are as published by the source; combined rates are total hits divided by total packs. Ranges are Jeffreys 95% intervals. How sure we are: “Very sure” when the range is within ±25% of the rate, “Fairly sure” within ±50%, otherwise “Rough estimate.”
How to cite this page
Poké Life, “Pokémon Phantasmal Flames pull rates,” https://poke-life.com/sets/phantasmal-flames/ (data checked Oct 12, 2026). CC BY 4.0.Free to share and adapt under CC BY 4.0. The rates change when we verify new openings, so include the date. A copy of the numbers that won't change: 2026-10-12 version (all versions).