SIRMega Greninja ex
$129.25
1 in 496 packs
Pull rate analysis
Chaos Rising pull rates
Every rarity's odds from 1 verified opening, 8,600+ packs in all, plus your chances by product and what a pack is really worth.
$129.08
$41.86
$26.10
$22.74
In Pokémon Chaos Rising, a Special Illustration Rare turns up in about 1 in 83 packs (1.21%), from 105 hits in 8,680 packs across 1 verified opening, checked Oct 12, 2026. At today's prices the hits in an average pack are worth $1.27, against $6.08 for a loose pack.
- 8,680Packs measuredFrom 1 verified study
- 35%SIR in a booster boxAt least one in 36 packs
- $1.27Hit value / packAverage value vs. $6.08 loose pack
- May 22, 2026Release dateSet code ME4
Pull rate summary
How often each rarity turns up, based on every verified pack we have. “Specific card” assumes every card in a rarity is equally likely.
| Rarity | Odds per pack | 95% range | Sample | How sure we are |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Double RareSpecific card: 1 in 49 (10 cards) | 1 in 520.30% | 19.46%–21.16%±4% of the rate | 1,746 in 8,602packs, reconstructed | Very sureCRI-001 |
| Illustration RareSpecific card: 1 in 103 (11 cards) | 1 in 910.66% | 10.02%–11.32%±6% of the rate | 923 in 8,659packs, reconstructed | Very sureCRI-001 |
| Ultra RareSpecific card: 1 in 217 (18 cards) | 1 in 128.29% | 7.73%–8.89%±7% of the rate | 720 in 8,682packs, reconstructed | Very sureCRI-001 |
| Special Illustration RareSpecific card: 1 in 496 (6 cards) | 1 in 831.21% | 1.00%–1.46%±19% of the rate | 105 in 8,680packs, reconstructed | Very sureCRI-001 |
| Mega Hyper RareSpecific card: 1 in 1,000 (1 cards) | 1 in 1,0000.10% | 0.05%–0.19%±69% of the rate | 8 in 7,832packs, reconstructed | Rough estimateCRI-001 |
Most valuable cards
Today's TCGplayer market price, and your odds of pulling each card in one pack if every card in its rarity is equally likely.
Mega Greninja ex
$129.08
1 in 1,000 packs
Cinccino ex
$41.86
1 in 496 packs
Mega Dragalge ex
$26.10
1 in 496 packs
Mega Floette ex
$22.74
1 in 496 packs
SIR
AZ's Tranquility
$20.26
1 in 496 packs
SIR
Roxie's Performance
$16.67
1 in 496 packs
UR
Mega Greninja ex
$7.97
1 in 217 packs
IR
Froakie
$5.36
1 in 103 packs
IR
Xerneas
$5.25
1 in 103 packs
IR
Ampharos
$4.27
1 in 103 packs
IR
Frogadier
$3.87
1 in 103 packs
Prices as of Oct 12, 2026. Card images are shown for identification.
What are my odds?
| Rarity | Per pack | Chance of at least one in 36 | Packs for 50% / 90% |
|---|---|---|---|
| Double Rare | 1 in 5 | >99.9% | 4 / 11 |
| Illustration Rare | 1 in 9 | 98.3% (97.8%–98.7%) | 7 / 21 |
| Ultra Rare | 1 in 12 | 95.6% (94.5%–96.5%) | 9 / 27 |
| Special Illustration Rare | 1 in 83 | 35.5% (30.2%–41.0%) | 57 / 190 |
| Mega Hyper Rare | 1 in 1000 | 3.5% (1.7%–6.7%) | 693 / 2302 |
Ranges reflect the 95% uncertainty in the measured rate. Odds are independent per pack; no product guarantees a hit.
Your odds as you open more packs
Open Chaos Rising packs
0 packs openedEvery pack is drawn at Chaos Rising's measured pull rates, and every hit is a real card at today's price.
- Spent
- $0.00
- Pulled
- $0.00
- Net
- $0.00
$6.08 a pack · hits valued at what they'd sell for after fees
Auto speed
Default: one loose pack's TCGplayer market price today.
Open until I get…Auto-opens until you get it, then shows how your luck compares.
Your pulls
Every card you pull collects here. About 37% of packs have a hit.
Value is what you'd net selling each hit (13% fees + $0.30; under $1.50 counts as $0.05). Luck ranks your run against thousands of simulated runs of the same length. Most runs finish below the long-run average, because a few huge pulls drag the average up. Commons, uncommons and reverse holos aren't counted. Just for fun: each run is random.
Is it worth opening?
Simulates opening 36 packs using the measured pull rates and current card prices.
Booster box: $186 today · MSRP $162 (Scrydex, Oct 12, 2026). Sealed products sell well above MSRP once they're hard to find at retail.
Simulating…
Top chase cards
| Card | Market price | Per pack | Chance in 36 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mega Greninja ex #116 Special Illustration Rare | $129 | 1 in 496 | 7.0% |
| Mega Greninja ex #122 Mega Hyper Rare | $129 | 1 in 1,000 | 3.5% |
| Cinccino ex #119 Special Illustration Rare | $41.86 | 1 in 496 | 7.0% |
| Mega Dragalge ex #118 Special Illustration Rare | $26.10 | 1 in 496 | 7.0% |
| Mega Floette ex #117 Special Illustration Rare | $22.74 | 1 in 496 | 7.0% |
| AZ's Tranquility #120 Special Illustration Rare | $20.26 | 1 in 496 | 7.0% |
| Roxie's Performance #121 Special Illustration Rare | $16.67 | 1 in 496 | 7.0% |
| Mega Greninja ex #100 Ultra Rare | $7.97 | 1 in 217 | 15.3% |
Counts hits only (Double Rare, Ultra Rare, Illustration Rare, Special Illustration Rare, Mega Hyper Rare), valued at what you'd likely net selling them: market price minus 13% fees and $0.30 per card, with cards under $1.50 counted as bulk ($0.05). Commons, uncommons, regular rares and reverse holos are left out, so this understates total value slightly.
The pack layout for this set is provisional: some slot assignments come from secondary sources.
Not financial advice. Prices change daily; results are estimates, not guarantees.
Card prices: TCGplayer market price via Scrydex (46 cards), as of 2026-10-12. Sealed prices: Scrydex, Oct 12, 2026. Price paid defaults to today's market price; switch to MSRP or enter what you actually paid. Open in the full pack simulator.
Where a pack's value comes from
An average pack's hits are worth about $0.91 after selling fees, against a $4.49 MSRP (packs sell for about $6.08 today). Just 5 cards account for 54% of that.
The cards carrying the value
- Mega Greninja ex #116: $0.23 per pack (25%)
- Mega Greninja ex #122: $0.11 per pack (12%)
- Cinccino ex #119: $0.07 per pack (8%)
- Mega Dragalge ex #118: $0.05 per pack (5%)
- Froakie #88: $0.04 per pack (5%)
What a hit is usually worth
Most cards in each rarity sell for far less than the few chase cards. On average you pull one card worth $20+ every 90 packs.
10 Under $2
10 Under $2, 8 $2–10
5 Under $2, 6 $2–10
1 $10–20, 4 $20–50, 1 $50+
1 $50+
Under $2 $2–10 $10–20 $20–50 $50+
Value per pack = chance of pulling each card × what you'd net selling it. Cards within a rarity are assumed equally likely. Price brackets use TCGplayer market price before fees.
Quick answers
- When did Pokémon Chaos Rising come out?
- Chaos Rising came out on May 22, 2026 in English.
- What are the chase cards in Chaos Rising?
- By today's market price: Mega Greninja ex (Special Illustration Rare, $129.25, about 1 in 496 packs), Mega Greninja ex (Mega Hyper Rare, $129.08, about 1 in 1,000 packs), and Cinccino ex (Special Illustration Rare, $41.86, about 1 in 496 packs).
- Is Chaos Rising worth opening?
- On average, no: the hits in a pack are worth about $1.27 at today's prices, against $6.08 for a loose pack. Open for fun; buy the single if you want one card.
- Is a Chaos Rising booster box worth it?
- A booster box has 36 packs and sells for about $186. Its hits are worth about $46 on average, with a 35% chance of at least one Special Illustration Rare.
- How many packs are in a Chaos Rising Elite Trainer Box?
- 9 packs, for a 10% chance of at least one Special Illustration Rare.
Where these numbers come from
We only count openings we've checked against the original source. When several qualify, we add up the hits and packs across them.
TCGplayer Authentication CenterUsed in our numbers
Prices: Scrydex.
Rates are as published by the source; combined rates are total hits divided by total packs. Ranges are Jeffreys 95% intervals. How sure we are: “Very sure” when the range is within ±25% of the rate, “Fairly sure” within ±50%, otherwise “Rough estimate.”
How to cite this page
Poké Life, “Pokémon Chaos Rising pull rates,” https://poke-life.com/sets/chaos-rising/ (data checked Oct 12, 2026). CC BY 4.0.Free to share and adapt under CC BY 4.0. The rates change when we verify new openings, so include the date. A copy of the numbers that won't change: 2026-10-12 version (all versions).