SIRMega Gengar ex
$833.70
1 in 1,528 packs
Pull rate analysis
Ascended Heroes pull rates
Every rarity's odds from 1 verified opening, 2,100+ packs in all, plus your chances by product and what a pack is really worth.
$798.52
$479.02
$301.51
$292.47
In Pokémon Ascended Heroes, a Special Illustration Rare turns up in about 1 in 69 packs (1.44%), from 31 hits in 2,181 packs across 1 verified opening, checked Oct 12, 2026. At today's prices the hits in an average pack are worth $4.21, against $11.90 for a loose pack.
- 2,181Packs measuredFrom 1 verified study
- 12%SIR in an elite trainer boxAt least one in 9 packs
- $4.21Hit value / packAverage value vs. $11.90 loose pack
- Jan 30, 2026Release dateSet code ME2.5
Pull rate summary
How often each rarity turns up, based on every verified pack we have. “Specific card” assumes every card in a rarity is equally likely.
| Rarity | Odds per pack | 95% range | Sample | How sure we are |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Double RareSpecific card: 1 in 191 (39 cards) | 1 in 520.37% | 18.70%–22.10%±8% of the rate | 439 in 2,156packs, reconstructed | Very sureASC-001 |
| Illustration RareSpecific card: 1 in 293 (33 cards) | 1 in 911.25% | 9.98%–12.64%±12% of the rate | 244 in 2,168packs, reconstructed | Very sureASC-001 |
| Ultra RareSpecific card: 1 in 291 (14 cards) | 1 in 214.81% | 3.95%–5.75%±19% of the rate | 104 in 2,171packs, reconstructed | Very sureASC-001 |
| Mega Attack RareSpecific card: 1 in 202 (7 cards) | 1 in 293.47% | 2.75%–4.29%±22% of the rate | 75 in 2,170packs, reconstructed | Very sureASC-001 |
| Special Illustration RareSpecific card: 1 in 1,528 (22 cards) | 1 in 691.44% | 0.99%–1.98%±35% of the rate | 31 in 2,181packs, reconstructed | Fairly sureASC-001 |
| Mega Hyper RareSpecific card: 1 in 1,053 (2 cards) | 1 in 5260.19% | 0.06%–0.42%±98% of the rate | 4 in 2,248packs, reconstructed | Rough estimateASC-001 |
Most valuable cards
Today's TCGplayer market price, and your odds of pulling each card in one pack if every card in its rarity is equally likely.
Pikachu ex
$798.52
1 in 1,528 packs
Mega Dragonite ex
$479.02
1 in 1,528 packs
Pikachu ex
$301.51
1 in 1,528 packs
Mega Charizard Y ex
$292.47
1 in 1,053 packs
SIR
Team Rocket's Mewtwo ex
$245.12
1 in 1,528 packs
Mega Hyper Rare
Mega Dragonite ex
$170.69
1 in 1,053 packs
SIR
N's Zoroark ex
$139.93
1 in 1,528 packs
SIR
Lillie's Clefairy ex
$124.69
1 in 1,528 packs
SIR
Mega Feraligatr ex
$82.81
1 in 1,528 packs
SIR
Mega Meganium ex
$68.13
1 in 1,528 packs
SIR
Steven's Metagross ex
$66.51
1 in 1,528 packs
Prices as of Oct 12, 2026. Card images are shown for identification.
What are my odds?
| Rarity | Per pack | Chance of at least one in 9 | Packs for 50% / 90% |
|---|---|---|---|
| Double Rare | 1 in 5 | 87.1% (84.5%–89.4%) | 4 / 11 |
| Illustration Rare | 1 in 9 | 65.8% (61.2%–70.4%) | 6 / 20 |
| Ultra Rare | 1 in 21 | 35.8% (30.4%–41.3%) | 15 / 47 |
| Mega Attack Rare | 1 in 29 | 27.2% (22.2%–32.6%) | 20 / 66 |
| Special Illustration Rare | 1 in 69 | 12.2% (8.5%–16.5%) | 48 / 159 |
| Mega Hyper Rare | 1 in 526 | 1.7% (0.5%–3.7%) | 365 / 1211 |
Ranges reflect the 95% uncertainty in the measured rate. Odds are independent per pack; no product guarantees a hit.
Your odds as you open more packs
Open Ascended Heroes packs
0 packs openedEvery pack is drawn at Ascended Heroes's measured pull rates, and every hit is a real card at today's price.
- Spent
- $0.00
- Pulled
- $0.00
- Net
- $0.00
$11.90 a pack · hits valued at what they'd sell for after fees
Auto speed
Default: one loose pack's TCGplayer market price today.
Open until I get…Auto-opens until you get it, then shows how your luck compares.
Your pulls
Every card you pull collects here. About 38% of packs have a hit.
Value is what you'd net selling each hit (13% fees + $0.30; under $1.50 counts as $0.05). Luck ranks your run against thousands of simulated runs of the same length. Most runs finish below the long-run average, because a few huge pulls drag the average up. Commons, uncommons and reverse holos aren't counted. Just for fun: each run is random.
Is it worth opening?
Simulates opening 9 packs using the measured pull rates and current card prices.
Elite Trainer Box: $144 today · MSRP about $40.41 at $4.49 a pack (Scrydex, Oct 12, 2026). Sealed products sell well above MSRP once they're hard to find at retail.
Simulating…
Top chase cards
| Card | Market price | Per pack | Chance in 9 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mega Gengar ex #284 Special Illustration Rare | $834 | 1 in 1,528 | 0.6% |
| Pikachu ex #276 Special Illustration Rare | $799 | 1 in 1,528 | 0.6% |
| Mega Dragonite ex #290 Special Illustration Rare | $479 | 1 in 1,528 | 0.6% |
| Pikachu ex #277 Special Illustration Rare | $302 | 1 in 1,528 | 0.6% |
| Mega Charizard Y ex #294 Mega Hyper Rare | $292 | 1 in 1,053 | 0.9% |
| Team Rocket's Mewtwo ex #281 Special Illustration Rare | $245 | 1 in 1,528 | 0.6% |
| Mega Dragonite ex #295 Mega Hyper Rare | $171 | 1 in 1,053 | 0.9% |
| N's Zoroark ex #286 Special Illustration Rare | $140 | 1 in 1,528 | 0.6% |
Counts hits only (Double Rare, Ultra Rare, Mega Attack Rare, Illustration Rare, Special Illustration Rare, Mega Hyper Rare), valued at what you'd likely net selling them: market price minus 13% fees and $0.30 per card, with cards under $1.50 counted as bulk ($0.05). Commons, uncommons, regular rares and reverse holos are left out, so this understates total value slightly.
The pack layout for this set is provisional: some slot assignments come from secondary sources.
Not financial advice. Prices change daily; results are estimates, not guarantees.
Card prices: TCGplayer market price via Scrydex (117 cards), as of 2026-10-12. Sealed prices: Scrydex, Oct 12, 2026. Price paid defaults to today's market price; switch to MSRP or enter what you actually paid. Open in the full pack simulator.
Where a pack's value comes from
An average pack's hits are worth about $3.48 after selling fees, against a $4.49 MSRP (packs sell for about $11.90 today). Just 5 cards account for 46% of that.
The cards carrying the value
- Mega Gengar ex #284: $0.47 per pack (14%)
- Pikachu ex #276: $0.45 per pack (13%)
- Mega Dragonite ex #290: $0.27 per pack (8%)
- Mega Charizard Y ex #294: $0.24 per pack (7%)
- Pikachu ex #277: $0.17 per pack (5%)
What a hit is usually worth
Most cards in each rarity sell for far less than the few chase cards. On average you pull one card worth $20+ every 35 packs.
34 Under $2, 5 $2–10
11 Under $2, 3 $2–10
5 $2–10, 2 $20–50
2 Under $2, 28 $2–10, 2 $10–20, 1 $20–50
1 $10–20, 10 $20–50, 11 $50+
2 $50+
Under $2 $2–10 $10–20 $20–50 $50+
Value per pack = chance of pulling each card × what you'd net selling it. Cards within a rarity are assumed equally likely. Price brackets use TCGplayer market price before fees.
Quick answers
- When did Pokémon Ascended Heroes come out?
- Ascended Heroes came out on Jan 30, 2026 in English.
- What are the chase cards in Ascended Heroes?
- By today's market price: Mega Gengar ex (Special Illustration Rare, $833.70, about 1 in 1,528 packs), Pikachu ex (Special Illustration Rare, $798.52, about 1 in 1,528 packs), and Mega Dragonite ex (Special Illustration Rare, $479.02, about 1 in 1,528 packs).
- Is Ascended Heroes worth opening?
- On average, no: the hits in a pack are worth about $4.21 at today's prices, against $11.90 for a loose pack. Open for fun; buy the single if you want one card.
- How many packs are in an Ascended Heroes Elite Trainer Box?
- 9 packs, for a 12% chance of at least one Special Illustration Rare.
Where these numbers come from
We only count openings we've checked against the original source. When several qualify, we add up the hits and packs across them.
TCGplayer Authentication CenterUsed in our numbers
Prices: Scrydex.
Rates are as published by the source; combined rates are total hits divided by total packs. Ranges are Jeffreys 95% intervals. How sure we are: “Very sure” when the range is within ±25% of the rate, “Fairly sure” within ±50%, otherwise “Rough estimate.”
How to cite this page
Poké Life, “Pokémon Ascended Heroes pull rates,” https://poke-life.com/sets/ascended-heroes/ (data checked Oct 12, 2026). CC BY 4.0.Free to share and adapt under CC BY 4.0. The rates change when we verify new openings, so include the date. A copy of the numbers that won't change: 2026-10-12 version (all versions).