SIRPikachu ex
$276.42
1 in 957 packs
Pull rate analysis
Surging Sparks pull rates
Every rarity's odds from 1 verified opening, 9,000+ packs in all, plus your chances by product and what a pack is really worth.
$182.25
$106.71
$75.20
$37.37
In Pokémon Surging Sparks, a Special Illustration Rare turns up in about 1 in 87 packs (1.15%), from 104 hits in 9,022 packs across 1 verified opening, checked Oct 12, 2026. At today's prices the hits in an average pack are worth $1.97, against $8.76 for a loose pack.
- 9,022Packs measuredFrom 1 verified study
- 34%SIR in a booster boxAt least one in 36 packs
- $1.97Hit value / packAverage value vs. $8.76 loose pack
- Nov 8, 2024Release dateSet code SV8
Pull rate summary
How often each rarity turns up, based on every verified pack we have. “Specific card” assumes every card in a rarity is equally likely.
| Rarity | Odds per pack | 95% range | Sample | How sure we are |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Double RareSpecific card: 1 in 106 (18 cards) | 1 in 616.94% | 16.16%–17.74%±5% of the rate | 1,467 in 8,661packs, reconstructed | Very sureSSP-001 |
| ACE SPEC RareSpecific card: 1 in 159 (8 cards) | 1 in 205.03% | 4.58%–5.50%±9% of the rate | 436 in 8,672packs, reconstructed | Very sureSSP-001 |
| Illustration RareSpecific card: 1 in 300 (23 cards) | 1 in 137.67% | 7.12%–8.24%±7% of the rate | 665 in 8,675packs, reconstructed | Very sureSSP-001 |
| Ultra RareSpecific card: 1 in 312 (21 cards) | 1 in 156.74% | 6.22%–7.28%±8% of the rate | 579 in 8,596packs, reconstructed | Very sureSSP-001 |
| Special Illustration RareSpecific card: 1 in 957 (11 cards) | 1 in 871.15% | 0.95%–1.39%±19% of the rate | 104 in 9,022packs, reconstructed | Very sureSSP-001 |
| Hyper RareSpecific card: 1 in 1,132 (6 cards) | 1 in 1890.53% | 0.40%–0.70%±28% of the rate | 48 in 9,001packs, reconstructed | Fairly sureSSP-001 |
Most valuable cards
Today's TCGplayer market price, and your odds of pulling each card in one pack if every card in its rarity is equally likely.
Latias ex
$182.25
1 in 957 packs
Milotic ex
$106.71
1 in 957 packs
Pikachu ex
$75.20
1 in 1,132 packs
Durant ex
$37.37
1 in 957 packs
SIR
Hydreigon ex
$34.65
1 in 957 packs
IR
Latios
$29.08
1 in 300 packs
UR
Pikachu ex
$27.19
1 in 312 packs
SIR
Alolan Exeggutor ex
$24.76
1 in 957 packs
SIR
Lisia's Appeal
$24.60
1 in 957 packs
IR
Ceruledge
$21.93
1 in 300 packs
SIR
Jasmine's Gaze
$21.42
1 in 957 packs
Prices as of Oct 12, 2026. Card images are shown for identification.
What are my odds?
| Rarity | Per pack | Chance of at least one in 36 | Packs for 50% / 90% |
|---|---|---|---|
| Double Rare | 1 in 6 | 99.9% (99.8%–>99.9%) | 4 / 13 |
| ACE SPEC Rare | 1 in 20 | 84.4% (81.5%–87.0%) | 14 / 45 |
| Illustration Rare | 1 in 13 | 94.3% (93.0%–95.5%) | 9 / 29 |
| Ultra Rare | 1 in 15 | 91.9% (90.1%–93.4%) | 10 / 33 |
| Special Illustration Rare | 1 in 87 | 34.1% (29.0%–39.6%) | 60 / 200 |
| Hyper Rare | 1 in 189 | 17.4% (13.4%–22.3%) | 131 / 434 |
Ranges reflect the 95% uncertainty in the measured rate. Odds are independent per pack; no product guarantees a hit.
Your odds as you open more packs
Open Surging Sparks packs
0 packs openedEvery pack is drawn at Surging Sparks's measured pull rates, and every hit is a real card at today's price.
- Spent
- $0.00
- Pulled
- $0.00
- Net
- $0.00
$8.76 a pack · hits valued at what they'd sell for after fees
Auto speed
Default: one loose pack's TCGplayer market price today.
Open until I get…Auto-opens until you get it, then shows how your luck compares.
Your pulls
Every card you pull collects here. About 34% of packs have a hit.
Value is what you'd net selling each hit (13% fees + $0.30; under $1.50 counts as $0.05). Luck ranks your run against thousands of simulated runs of the same length. Most runs finish below the long-run average, because a few huge pulls drag the average up. Commons, uncommons and reverse holos aren't counted. Just for fun: each run is random.
Is it worth opening?
Simulates opening 36 packs using the measured pull rates and current card prices.
Booster box: $303 today · MSRP $162 (Scrydex, Oct 12, 2026). Sealed products sell well above MSRP once they're hard to find at retail.
Simulating…
Top chase cards
| Card | Market price | Per pack | Chance in 36 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pikachu ex #238 Special Illustration Rare | $276 | 1 in 957 | 3.7% |
| Latias ex #239 Special Illustration Rare | $182 | 1 in 957 | 3.7% |
| Milotic ex #237 Special Illustration Rare | $107 | 1 in 957 | 3.7% |
| Pikachu ex #247 Hyper Rare | $75.20 | 1 in 1,132 | 3.1% |
| Durant ex #236 Special Illustration Rare | $37.37 | 1 in 957 | 3.7% |
| Hydreigon ex #240 Special Illustration Rare | $34.65 | 1 in 957 | 3.7% |
| Latios #203 Illustration Rare | $29.08 | 1 in 300 | 11.3% |
| Pikachu ex #219 Ultra Rare | $27.19 | 1 in 312 | 10.9% |
Counts hits only (Double Rare, Ultra Rare, ACE SPEC Rare, Illustration Rare, Special Illustration Rare, Hyper Rare), valued at what you'd likely net selling them: market price minus 13% fees and $0.30 per card, with cards under $1.50 counted as bulk ($0.05). Commons, uncommons, regular rares and reverse holos are left out, so this understates total value slightly.
Not financial advice. Prices change daily; results are estimates, not guarantees.
Card prices: TCGplayer market price via Scrydex (87 cards), as of 2026-10-12. Sealed prices: Scrydex, Oct 12, 2026. Price paid defaults to today's market price; switch to MSRP or enter what you actually paid. Open in the full pack simulator.
Where a pack's value comes from
An average pack's hits are worth about $1.55 after selling fees, against a $4.49 MSRP (packs sell for about $8.76 today). Just 5 cards account for 43% of that.
The cards carrying the value
- Pikachu ex #238: $0.25 per pack (16%)
- Latias ex #239: $0.17 per pack (11%)
- Milotic ex #237: $0.10 per pack (6%)
- Latios #203: $0.08 per pack (5%)
- Pikachu ex #219: $0.07 per pack (5%)
What a hit is usually worth
Most cards in each rarity sell for far less than the few chase cards. On average you pull one card worth $20+ every 52 packs.
15 Under $2, 3 $2–10
13 Under $2, 7 $2–10, 1 $20–50
6 Under $2, 2 $2–10
1 Under $2, 18 $2–10, 2 $10–20, 2 $20–50
2 $2–10, 1 $10–20, 5 $20–50, 3 $50+
2 $2–10, 3 $10–20, 1 $50+
Under $2 $2–10 $10–20 $20–50 $50+
Value per pack = chance of pulling each card × what you'd net selling it. Cards within a rarity are assumed equally likely. Price brackets use TCGplayer market price before fees.
Quick answers
- When did Pokémon Surging Sparks come out?
- Surging Sparks came out on Nov 8, 2024 in English.
- What are the chase cards in Surging Sparks?
- By today's market price: Pikachu ex (Special Illustration Rare, $276.42, about 1 in 957 packs), Latias ex (Special Illustration Rare, $182.25, about 1 in 957 packs), and Milotic ex (Special Illustration Rare, $106.71, about 1 in 957 packs).
- Is Surging Sparks worth opening?
- On average, no: the hits in a pack are worth about $1.97 at today's prices, against $8.76 for a loose pack. Open for fun; buy the single if you want one card.
- Is a Surging Sparks booster box worth it?
- A booster box has 36 packs and sells for about $303. Its hits are worth about $71 on average, with a 34% chance of at least one Special Illustration Rare.
- How many packs are in a Surging Sparks Elite Trainer Box?
- 9 packs, for a 10% chance of at least one Special Illustration Rare.
Where these numbers come from
We only count openings we've checked against the original source. When several qualify, we add up the hits and packs across them.
TCGplayer Authentication CenterUsed in our numbers
Prices: Scrydex.
Rates are as published by the source; combined rates are total hits divided by total packs. Ranges are Jeffreys 95% intervals. How sure we are: “Very sure” when the range is within ±25% of the rate, “Fairly sure” within ±50%, otherwise “Rough estimate.”
How to cite this page
Poké Life, “Pokémon Surging Sparks pull rates,” https://poke-life.com/sets/surging-sparks/ (data checked Oct 12, 2026). CC BY 4.0.Free to share and adapt under CC BY 4.0. The rates change when we verify new openings, so include the date. A copy of the numbers that won't change: 2026-10-12 version (all versions).