Prismatic Evolutions pricesUpdated daily · Oct 12, 2026

Pull rate analysis

Prismatic Evolutions pull rates

Every rarity's odds from 1 verified opening, 1,200+ packs in all, plus your chances by product and what a pack is really worth. Also searched as “Prismatic Evolution”.

Numbers checked Oct 7, 2026Set code SV8.5Special set
What are my odds?Open packs
  1. Umbreon ex (#161)$1,285
  2. Sylveon ex (#156)$462.13
  3. Leafeon ex (#144)$315.40
  4. Espeon ex (#155)$290.49
  5. Vaporeon ex (#149)$264.93
Top chase cards · TCGplayer market, Oct 12, 2026

In Pokémon Prismatic Evolutions, a Special Illustration Rare turns up in about 1 in 45 packs (2.22%), from 28 hits in 1,271 packs across 1 verified opening, checked Oct 7, 2026. At today's prices the hits in an average pack are worth $4.08, against $13.91 for a loose pack.

  • 1,271Packs measuredFrom 1 verified study
  • 18%SIR in an elite trainer boxAt least one in 9 packs
  • $4.08Hit value / packAverage value vs. $13.91 loose pack
  • Jan 17, 2025Release dateSet code SV8.5

Pull rate summary

How often each rarity turns up, based on every verified pack we have. “Specific card” assumes every card in a rarity is equally likely.

RarityOdds per pack95% rangeSampleHow sure we are
Poké Ball patternSpecific card: 1 in 302 (100 cards)1 in 333.10%30.51%–35.70%±8% of the rate416 in 1,258packs, reconstructedVery surePRE-001
Double RareSpecific card: 1 in 151 (25 cards)1 in 616.51%14.54%–18.63%±12% of the rate208 in 1,260packs, reconstructedVery surePRE-001
Ultra RareSpecific card: 1 in 161 (12 cards)1 in 137.46%6.10%–9.00%±19% of the rate94 in 1,261packs, reconstructedVery surePRE-001
ACE SPEC RareSpecific card: 1 in 128 (6 cards)1 in 214.68%3.64%–5.99%±25% of the rate59 in 1,252packs, reconstructedVery surePRE-001
Master Ball patternSpecific card: 1 in 1,362 (67 cards)1 in 204.92%3.80%–6.18%±24% of the rate62 in 1,269packs, reconstructedVery surePRE-001
Special Illustration RareSpecific card: 1 in 1,441 (32 cards)Measured as SIR cards per pack on average. Some packs hold three SIRs, so the chance that a given pack has any SIR is somewhat lower.1 in 452.22%1.50%–3.12%±37% of the rate28 in 1,271packs, reconstructedFairly surePRE-001
Hyper RareSpecific card: 1 in 893 (5 cards)1 in 1790.56%0.25%–1.08%±74% of the rate7 in 1,273packs, reconstructedRough estimatePRE-001

Most valuable cards

Today's TCGplayer market price, and your odds of pulling each card in one pack if every card in its rarity is equally likely.

Full card list →
  • Umbreon ex (#161)SIR

    Umbreon ex

    Special Illustration Rare · #161

    $1,285

    1 in 1,441 packs

  • Sylveon ex (#156)SIR

    Sylveon ex

    Special Illustration Rare · #156

    $462.13

    1 in 1,441 packs

  • Leafeon ex (#144)SIR

    Leafeon ex

    Special Illustration Rare · #144

    $315.40

    1 in 1,441 packs

  • Espeon ex (#155)SIR

    Espeon ex

    Special Illustration Rare · #155

    $290.49

    1 in 1,441 packs

  • Vaporeon ex (#149)SIR

    Vaporeon ex

    Special Illustration Rare · #149

    $264.93

    1 in 1,441 packs

  • Glaceon ex (#150)SIR

    Glaceon ex

    Special Illustration Rare · #150

    $257.53

    1 in 1,441 packs

  • Flareon ex (#146)SIR

    Flareon ex

    Special Illustration Rare · #146

    $174.81

    1 in 1,441 packs

  • Eevee ex (#167)SIR

    Eevee ex

    Special Illustration Rare · #167

    $171.56

    1 in 1,441 packs

  • Jolteon ex (#153)SIR

    Jolteon ex

    Special Illustration Rare · #153

    $169.28

    1 in 1,441 packs

  • Roaring Moon ex (#162)SIR

    Roaring Moon ex

    Special Illustration Rare · #162

    $162.14

    1 in 1,441 packs

  • Dragapult ex (#165)SIR

    Dragapult ex

    Special Illustration Rare · #165

    $101.78

    1 in 1,441 packs

  • Ceruledge ex (#147)SIR

    Ceruledge ex

    Special Illustration Rare · #147

    $97.43

    1 in 1,441 packs

Prices as of Oct 12, 2026. Card images are shown for identification.

Do other openings agree?

Most openings we found land close to our numbers. The few that don't are marked below. None of those are verified sources yet.

Every opening is a bit different by luck. "Agrees" means the difference is small enough to be luck of the draw. Openings marked “Not yet verified” aren't used in our numbers.

Ultra Rare

Our number: 1 in 13 packs

  • TCGplayer Authentication Center1,261 packs1 in 13Agrees
  • Whatnot stream tallies compiled on X ("Pokemon-Switch Stock")Not yet verifiedpre-release2,700 packs1 in 16Pulled less often
  • Danny Phantump (YouTube)Not yet verified540 packs1 in 15Agrees
  • Kotaku (John Walker)Not yet verifiedpacks supplied by The Pokémon Company International26 packs · small sample1 in 7Agrees

ACE SPEC Rare

Our number: 1 in 21 packs

  • TCGplayer Authentication Center1,252 packs1 in 21Agrees
  • Whatnot stream tallies compiled on X ("Pokemon-Switch Stock")Not yet verifiedpre-release2,700 packs1 in 29Pulled less often
  • Danny Phantump (YouTube)Not yet verified540 packs1 in 18Agrees
  • Kotaku (John Walker)Not yet verifiedpacks supplied by The Pokémon Company International26 packs · small sample1 in 26Agrees

Master Ball pattern

Our number: 1 in 20 packs

Special Illustration Rare

Our number: 1 in 45 packs

Hyper Rare

Our number: 1 in 179 packs

How we decide if an opening agrees

Someone who opens 100 packs can easily land on 1 in 15 or 1 in 30 for a rarity that's really 1 in 20, just by luck. Bigger openings land closer to the true rate. For each opening we work out the range its pack count could plausibly produce (a 95% interval). If our number falls inside that range, the opening agrees. "Small sample" means that range is wide, so the opening can't confirm or rule out much on its own.

What are my odds?

RarityPer packChance of at least one in 9Packs for 50% / 90%
Poké Ball pattern1 in 397.3% (96.2%–98.1%)2 / 6
Double Rare1 in 680.3% (75.7%–84.4%)4 / 13
Ultra Rare1 in 1350.2% (43.3%–57.2%)9 / 30
ACE SPEC Rare1 in 2135.0% (28.4%–42.7%)15 / 49
Master Ball pattern1 in 2036.5% (29.4%–43.7%)14 / 46
Special Illustration Rare*1 in 4518.3% (12.7%–24.8%)31 / 103
Hyper Rare1 in 1794.9% (2.2%–9.3%)124 / 411

Ranges reflect the 95% uncertainty in the measured rate. Odds are independent per pack; no product guarantees a hit.

Your odds as you open more packs

0%25%50%75%100%03672108 packs
Poké Ball pattern Double Rare Ultra Rare ACE SPEC Rare Master Ball pattern Special Illustration Rare Hyper Rare

* Special Illustration Rare: Measured as SIR cards per pack on average. Some packs hold three SIRs, so the chance that a given pack has any SIR is somewhat lower.

Open Prismatic Evolutions packs

0 packs opened

Every pack is drawn at Prismatic Evolutions's measured pull rates, and every hit is a real card at today's price.

Spent
$0.00
Pulled
$0.00
Net
$0.00

$13.91 a pack · hits valued at what they'd sell for after fees

Auto speed

Default: one loose pack's TCGplayer market price today.

Open until I get…
Auto-opens until you get it, then shows how your luck compares.

Your pulls

Every card you pull collects here. About 56% of packs have a hit.

Value is what you'd net selling each hit (13% fees + $0.30; under $1.50 counts as $0.05). Luck ranks your run against thousands of simulated runs of the same length. Most runs finish below the long-run average, because a few huge pulls drag the average up. Commons, uncommons and reverse holos aren't counted. Just for fun: each run is random.

Is it worth opening?

Simulates opening 9 packs using the measured pull rates and current card prices.

Elite Trainer Box: $124 today · MSRP $49.99 (Scrydex, Oct 12, 2026). Sealed products sell well above MSRP once they're hard to find at retail.

Simulating…

Top chase cards

CardMarket pricePer packChance in 9
Umbreon ex #161
Special Illustration Rare
$1,2851 in 1,4410.6%
Sylveon ex #156
Special Illustration Rare
$4621 in 1,4410.6%
Leafeon ex #144
Special Illustration Rare
$3151 in 1,4410.6%
Espeon ex #155
Special Illustration Rare
$2901 in 1,4410.6%
Vaporeon ex #149
Special Illustration Rare
$2651 in 1,4410.6%
Glaceon ex #150
Special Illustration Rare
$2581 in 1,4410.6%
Flareon ex #146
Special Illustration Rare
$1751 in 1,4410.6%
Eevee ex #167
Special Illustration Rare
$1721 in 1,4410.6%

Counts hits only (Double Rare, Ultra Rare, Poké Ball pattern, ACE SPEC Rare, Master Ball pattern, Special Illustration Rare, Hyper Rare), valued at what you'd likely net selling them: market price minus 13% fees and $0.30 per card, with cards under $1.50 counted as bulk ($0.05). Commons, uncommons, regular rares and reverse holos are left out, so this understates total value slightly.

Not financial advice. Prices change daily; results are estimates, not guarantees.

Card prices: TCGplayer market price via Scrydex (247 cards), as of 2026-10-12. Sealed prices: Scrydex, Oct 12, 2026. Price paid defaults to today's market price; switch to MSRP or enter what you actually paid. Open in the full pack simulator.

Where a pack's value comes from

An average pack's hits are worth about $3.29 after selling fees, against a $4.49 MSRP (packs sell for about $13.91 today). Just 5 cards account for 48% of that.

Special Illustration Rare$2.60 (79%)
Master Ball pattern$0.33 (10%)
Double Rare$0.24 (7%)
Hyper Rare$0.07 (2%)
Poké Ball pattern$0.05 (1%)
Ultra Rare$0.00 (0%)
ACE SPEC Rare$0.00 (0%)

The cards carrying the value

  1. Umbreon ex #161: $0.78 per pack (24%)
  2. Sylveon ex #156: $0.28 per pack (8%)
  3. Leafeon ex #144: $0.19 per pack (6%)
  4. Espeon ex #155: $0.18 per pack (5%)
  5. Vaporeon ex #149: $0.16 per pack (5%)

What a hit is usually worth

Most cards in each rarity sell for far less than the few chase cards. On average you pull one card worth $20+ every 41 packs.

Double Rare (25 cards)15 Under $2, 10 $2–10
Ultra Rare (12 cards)12 Under $2
Poké Ball pattern (100 cards)98 Under $2, 2 $2–10
ACE SPEC Rare (6 cards)6 Under $2
Master Ball pattern (67 cards)22 Under $2, 27 $2–10, 10 $10–20, 7 $20–50, 1 $50+
Special Illustration Rare (32 cards)7 $10–20, 11 $20–50, 14 $50+
Hyper Rare (5 cards)4 $2–10, 1 $20–50

Under $2 $2–10 $10–20 $20–50 $50+

Value per pack = chance of pulling each card × what you'd net selling it. Cards within a rarity are assumed equally likely. Price brackets use TCGplayer market price before fees.

Quick answers

When did Pokémon Prismatic Evolutions come out?
Prismatic Evolutions came out on Jan 17, 2025 in English.
What are the chase cards in Prismatic Evolutions?
By today's market price: Umbreon ex (Special Illustration Rare, $1,285, about 1 in 1,441 packs), Sylveon ex (Special Illustration Rare, $462.13, about 1 in 1,441 packs), and Leafeon ex (Special Illustration Rare, $315.40, about 1 in 1,441 packs).
Is Prismatic Evolutions worth opening?
On average, no: the hits in a pack are worth about $4.08 at today's prices, against $13.91 for a loose pack. Open for fun; buy the single if you want one card.
How many packs are in a Prismatic Evolutions Elite Trainer Box?
9 packs, for an 18% chance of at least one Special Illustration Rare.

Where these numbers come from

We only count openings we've checked against the original source. When several qualify, we add up the hits and packs across them.

  1. TCGplayer Authentication CenterUsed in our numbers

    Physical pack openings · more than 1,200 packs · Published Jan 17, 2025 · We checked it Oct 7, 2026

  2. Danny Phantump (YouTube)Not yet verified

    Physical pack openings · 540 (60 Elite Trainer Boxes) packs · Published Jan 17, 2025

  3. Kotaku (John Walker), packs supplied by The Pokémon Company InternationalNot yet verified

    Physical pack openings · 26 packs · Published Jan 17, 2025

  4. Whatnot stream tallies compiled on X ("Pokemon-Switch Stock"), pre-releaseNot yet verified

    unknown · around 2,700 packs

  5. TCGTalk (opener not named)Not yet verified

    Physical pack openings · 200 packs

Prices: Scrydex.

Rates are as published by the source; combined rates are total hits divided by total packs. Ranges are Jeffreys 95% intervals. How sure we are: “Very sure” when the range is within ±25% of the rate, “Fairly sure” within ±50%, otherwise “Rough estimate.”

How to cite this page

Poké Life, “Pokémon Prismatic Evolutions pull rates,” https://poke-life.com/sets/prismatic-evolutions/ (data checked Oct 7, 2026). CC BY 4.0.

Free to share and adapt under CC BY 4.0. The rates change when we verify new openings, so include the date. A copy of the numbers that won't change: 2026-10-12 version (all versions).