SIRGreninja ex
$320.74
1 in 940 packs
Pull rate analysis
Twilight Masquerade pull rates
Every rarity's odds from 1 verified opening, 8,300+ packs in all, plus your chances by product and what a pack is really worth.
$161.13
$71.25
$49.85
$46.14
In Pokémon Twilight Masquerade, a Special Illustration Rare turns up in about 1 in 85 packs (1.17%), from 98 hits in 8,397 packs across 1 verified opening, checked Oct 12, 2026. At today's prices the hits in an average pack are worth $2.56, against $9.18 for a loose pack.
- 8,397Packs measuredFrom 1 verified study
- 35%SIR in a booster boxAt least one in 36 packs
- $2.56Hit value / packAverage value vs. $9.18 loose pack
- May 24, 2024Release dateSet code SV6
Pull rate summary
How often each rarity turns up, based on every verified pack we have. “Specific card” assumes every card in a rarity is equally likely.
| Rarity | Odds per pack | 95% range | Sample | How sure we are |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Double RareSpecific card: 1 in 83 (14 cards) | 1 in 616.93% | 16.16%–17.74%±5% of the rate | 1,466 in 8,657packs, reconstructed | Very sureTWM-001 |
| ACE SPEC RareSpecific card: 1 in 119 (6 cards) | 1 in 205.06% | 4.61%–5.53%±9% of the rate | 441 in 8,721packs, reconstructed | Very sureTWM-001 |
| Illustration RareSpecific card: 1 in 272 (21 cards) | 1 in 137.73% | 7.18%–8.30%±7% of the rate | 675 in 8,737packs, reconstructed | Very sureTWM-001 |
| Ultra RareSpecific card: 1 in 318 (21 cards) | 1 in 156.61% | 6.11%–7.15%±8% of the rate | 580 in 8,770packs, reconstructed | Very sureTWM-001 |
| Special Illustration RareSpecific card: 1 in 940 (11 cards) | 1 in 851.17% | 0.95%–1.41%±20% of the rate | 98 in 8,397packs, reconstructed | Very sureTWM-001 |
| Hyper RareSpecific card: 1 in 882 (6 cards) | 1 in 1470.68% | 0.53%–0.87%±25% of the rate | 61 in 8,977packs, reconstructed | Fairly sureTWM-001 |
Most valuable cards
Today's TCGplayer market price, and your odds of pulling each card in one pack if every card in its rarity is equally likely.
Perrin
$161.13
1 in 940 packs
Eevee
$71.25
1 in 272 packs
Carmine
$49.85
1 in 940 packs
Chansey
$46.14
1 in 272 packs
SIR
Bloodmoon Ursaluna ex
$45.79
1 in 940 packs
SIR
Sinistcha ex
$34.57
1 in 940 packs
SIR
Lana's Aid
$33.69
1 in 940 packs
SIR
Kieran
$28.39
1 in 940 packs
IR
Hisuian Growlithe
$26.57
1 in 272 packs
IR
Tatsugiri
$20.77
1 in 272 packs
SIR
Teal Mask Ogerpon ex
$20.52
1 in 940 packs
Prices as of Oct 12, 2026. Card images are shown for identification.
What are my odds?
| Rarity | Per pack | Chance of at least one in 36 | Packs for 50% / 90% |
|---|---|---|---|
| Double Rare | 1 in 6 | 99.9% (99.8%–>99.9%) | 4 / 13 |
| ACE SPEC Rare | 1 in 20 | 84.6% (81.7%–87.1%) | 14 / 45 |
| Illustration Rare | 1 in 13 | 94.5% (93.2%–95.6%) | 9 / 29 |
| Ultra Rare | 1 in 15 | 91.5% (89.7%–93.1%) | 11 / 34 |
| Special Illustration Rare | 1 in 85 | 34.5% (29.2%–40.1%) | 59 / 196 |
| Hyper Rare | 1 in 147 | 21.8% (17.3%–26.9%) | 102 / 338 |
Ranges reflect the 95% uncertainty in the measured rate. Odds are independent per pack; no product guarantees a hit.
Your odds as you open more packs
Open Twilight Masquerade packs
0 packs openedEvery pack is drawn at Twilight Masquerade's measured pull rates, and every hit is a real card at today's price.
- Spent
- $0.00
- Pulled
- $0.00
- Net
- $0.00
$9.18 a pack · hits valued at what they'd sell for after fees
Auto speed
Default: one loose pack's TCGplayer market price today.
Open until I get…Auto-opens until you get it, then shows how your luck compares.
Your pulls
Every card you pull collects here. About 34% of packs have a hit.
Value is what you'd net selling each hit (13% fees + $0.30; under $1.50 counts as $0.05). Luck ranks your run against thousands of simulated runs of the same length. Most runs finish below the long-run average, because a few huge pulls drag the average up. Commons, uncommons and reverse holos aren't counted. Just for fun: each run is random.
Is it worth opening?
Simulates opening 36 packs using the measured pull rates and current card prices.
Booster box: $341 today · MSRP $162 (Scrydex, Oct 12, 2026). Sealed products sell well above MSRP once they're hard to find at retail.
Simulating…
Top chase cards
| Card | Market price | Per pack | Chance in 36 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Greninja ex #214 Special Illustration Rare | $321 | 1 in 940 | 3.8% |
| Perrin #220 Special Illustration Rare | $161 | 1 in 940 | 3.8% |
| Eevee #188 Illustration Rare | $71.25 | 1 in 272 | 12.4% |
| Carmine #217 Special Illustration Rare | $49.85 | 1 in 940 | 3.8% |
| Chansey #187 Illustration Rare | $46.14 | 1 in 272 | 12.4% |
| Bloodmoon Ursaluna ex #216 Special Illustration Rare | $45.79 | 1 in 940 | 3.8% |
| Sinistcha ex #210 Special Illustration Rare | $34.57 | 1 in 940 | 3.8% |
| Lana's Aid #219 Special Illustration Rare | $33.69 | 1 in 940 | 3.8% |
Counts hits only (Double Rare, Ultra Rare, ACE SPEC Rare, Illustration Rare, Special Illustration Rare, Hyper Rare), valued at what you'd likely net selling them: market price minus 13% fees and $0.30 per card, with cards under $1.50 counted as bulk ($0.05). Commons, uncommons, regular rares and reverse holos are left out, so this understates total value slightly.
Not financial advice. Prices change daily; results are estimates, not guarantees.
Card prices: TCGplayer market price via Scrydex (79 cards), as of 2026-10-12. Sealed prices: Scrydex, Oct 12, 2026. Price paid defaults to today's market price; switch to MSRP or enter what you actually paid. Open in the full pack simulator.
Where a pack's value comes from
An average pack's hits are worth about $2.07 after selling fees, against a $4.49 MSRP (packs sell for about $9.18 today). Just 5 cards account for 44% of that.
The cards carrying the value
- Greninja ex #214: $0.30 per pack (14%)
- Eevee #188: $0.23 per pack (11%)
- Perrin #220: $0.15 per pack (7%)
- Chansey #187: $0.15 per pack (7%)
- Unfair Stamp #165: $0.10 per pack (5%)
What a hit is usually worth
Most cards in each rarity sell for far less than the few chase cards. On average you pull one card worth $20+ every 43 packs.
12 Under $2, 2 $2–10
7 Under $2, 12 $2–10, 2 $10–20
3 Under $2, 2 $2–10, 1 $10–20
12 $2–10, 5 $10–20, 3 $20–50, 1 $50+
3 $10–20, 6 $20–50, 2 $50+
5 $2–10, 1 $10–20
Under $2 $2–10 $10–20 $20–50 $50+
Value per pack = chance of pulling each card × what you'd net selling it. Cards within a rarity are assumed equally likely. Price brackets use TCGplayer market price before fees.
Quick answers
- When did Pokémon Twilight Masquerade come out?
- Twilight Masquerade came out on May 24, 2024 in English.
- What are the chase cards in Twilight Masquerade?
- By today's market price: Greninja ex (Special Illustration Rare, $320.74, about 1 in 940 packs), Perrin (Special Illustration Rare, $161.13, about 1 in 940 packs), and Eevee (Illustration Rare, $71.25, about 1 in 272 packs).
- Is Twilight Masquerade worth opening?
- On average, no: the hits in a pack are worth about $2.56 at today's prices, against $9.18 for a loose pack. Open for fun; buy the single if you want one card.
- Is a Twilight Masquerade booster box worth it?
- A booster box has 36 packs and sells for about $341. Its hits are worth about $92 on average, with a 35% chance of at least one Special Illustration Rare.
- How many packs are in a Twilight Masquerade Elite Trainer Box?
- 9 packs, for a 10% chance of at least one Special Illustration Rare.
Where these numbers come from
We only count openings we've checked against the original source. When several qualify, we add up the hits and packs across them.
TCGplayer Authentication CenterUsed in our numbers
Prices: Scrydex.
Rates are as published by the source; combined rates are total hits divided by total packs. Ranges are Jeffreys 95% intervals. How sure we are: “Very sure” when the range is within ±25% of the rate, “Fairly sure” within ±50%, otherwise “Rough estimate.”
How to cite this page
Poké Life, “Pokémon Twilight Masquerade pull rates,” https://poke-life.com/sets/twilight-masquerade/ (data checked Oct 12, 2026). CC BY 4.0.Free to share and adapt under CC BY 4.0. The rates change when we verify new openings, so include the date. A copy of the numbers that won't change: 2026-10-12 version (all versions).