SIRCharizard ex
$320.91
1 in 225 packs
Pull rate analysis
151 pull rates
Every rarity's odds from 1 verified opening, 1,800+ packs in all, plus your chances by product and what a pack is really worth.
$116.55
$92.26
$90.23
$90.22
In Pokémon 151, a Special Illustration Rare turns up in about 1 in 32 packs (3.11%), from 56 hits in 1,809 packs across 1 verified opening, checked Oct 7, 2026. At today's prices the hits in an average pack are worth $8.04, against $28.47 for a loose pack.
- 1,809Packs measuredFrom 1 verified study
- 25%SIR in an elite trainer boxAt least one in 9 packs
- $8.04Hit value / packAverage value vs. $28.47 loose pack
- Sep 22, 2023Release dateSet code SV3.5
Pull rate summary
How often each rarity turns up, based on every verified pack we have. “Specific card” assumes every card in a rarity is equally likely.
| Rarity | Odds per pack | 95% range | Sample | How sure we are |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Double RareSpecific card: 1 in 90 (12 cards) | 1 in 813.28% | 11.75%–14.89%±12% of the rate | 238 in 1,795packs, reconstructed | Very sureMEW-001 |
| Illustration RareSpecific card: 1 in 188 (16 cards) | 1 in 128.50% | 7.30%–9.88%±15% of the rate | 153 in 1,795packs, reconstructed | Very sureMEW-001 |
| Ultra RareSpecific card: 1 in 248 (16 cards) | 1 in 166.44% | 5.39%–7.65%±18% of the rate | 117 in 1,813packs, reconstructed | Very sureMEW-001 |
| Special Illustration RareSpecific card: 1 in 225 (7 cards) | 1 in 323.11% | 2.37%–3.97%±26% of the rate | 56 in 1,809packs, reconstructed | Fairly sureMEW-001 |
| Hyper RareSpecific card: 1 in 155 (3 cards) | 1 in 521.94% | 1.39%–2.69%±33% of the rate | 35 in 1,784packs, reconstructed | Fairly sureMEW-001 |
| Holo Energy | 1 in 424.83% | 22.87%–26.87%±8% of the rate | 445 in 1,792packs, reconstructed | Very sureMEW-001 |
Most valuable cards
Today's TCGplayer market price, and your odds of pulling each card in one pack if every card in its rarity is equally likely.
Blastoise ex
$116.55
1 in 225 packs
Venusaur ex
$92.26
1 in 225 packs
Charmander
$90.23
1 in 188 packs
Squirtle
$90.22
1 in 188 packs
SIR
Zapdos ex
$82.75
1 in 225 packs
IR
Pikachu
$67.80
1 in 188 packs
IR
Bulbasaur
$62.37
1 in 188 packs
IR
Psyduck
$60.75
1 in 188 packs
SIR
Alakazam ex
$57.89
1 in 225 packs
IR
Charmeleon
$55.00
1 in 188 packs
IR
Wartortle
$51.81
1 in 188 packs
Prices as of Oct 12, 2026. Card images are shown for identification.
Do other openings agree?
Most openings we found land close to our numbers. The few that don't are marked below. None of those are verified sources yet.
Every opening is a bit different by luck. "Agrees" means the difference is small enough to be luck of the draw. Openings marked “Not yet verified” aren't used in our numbers.
Double Rare
Our number: 1 in 8 packs
- TCGplayer Authentication Center1,795 packs1 in 8Agrees
- Reddit u/slickwilli69 (r/PokemonTCG)Not yet verified1,000 packs1 in 7Agrees
- DigitalTQNot yet verified700 packs1 in 8Agrees
Illustration Rare
Our number: 1 in 12 packs
- TCGplayer Authentication Center1,795 packs1 in 12Agrees
- Reddit u/slickwilli69 (r/PokemonTCG)Not yet verified1,000 packs1 in 10Pulled more often
- DigitalTQNot yet verified700 packs1 in 13Agrees
Ultra Rare
Our number: 1 in 16 packs
- TCGplayer Authentication Center1,813 packs1 in 15Agrees
- Reddit u/slickwilli69 (r/PokemonTCG)Not yet verified1,000 packs1 in 11Pulled more often
- DigitalTQNot yet verified700 packs1 in 17Agrees
Special Illustration Rare
Our number: 1 in 32 packs
- TCGplayer Authentication Center1,809 packs1 in 32Agrees
- Reddit u/slickwilli69 (r/PokemonTCG)Not yet verified1,000 packs1 in 28Agrees
- DigitalTQNot yet verified700 packs1 in 28Agrees
Hyper Rare
Our number: 1 in 52 packs
- TCGplayer Authentication Center1,784 packs1 in 51Agrees
- Reddit u/slickwilli69 (r/PokemonTCG)Not yet verified1,000 packs1 in 36Agrees
- DigitalTQNot yet verified700 packs1 in 35Agrees
How we decide if an opening agrees
Someone who opens 100 packs can easily land on 1 in 15 or 1 in 30 for a rarity that's really 1 in 20, just by luck. Bigger openings land closer to the true rate. For each opening we work out the range its pack count could plausibly produce (a 95% interval). If our number falls inside that range, the opening agrees. "Small sample" means that range is wide, so the opening can't confirm or rule out much on its own.
What are my odds?
| Rarity | Per pack | Chance of at least one in 9 | Packs for 50% / 90% |
|---|---|---|---|
| Double Rare | 1 in 8 | 72.3% (67.5%–76.6%) | 5 / 17 |
| Illustration Rare | 1 in 12 | 55.0% (49.4%–60.8%) | 8 / 26 |
| Ultra Rare | 1 in 16 | 45.1% (39.3%–51.2%) | 11 / 35 |
| Special Illustration Rare | 1 in 32 | 24.7% (19.4%–30.6%) | 22 / 73 |
| Hyper Rare | 1 in 52 | 16.2% (11.9%–21.7%) | 36 / 118 |
| Holo Energy | 1 in 4 | 92.3% (90.3%–94.0%) | 3 / 9 |
Ranges reflect the 95% uncertainty in the measured rate. Odds are independent per pack; no product guarantees a hit.
Your odds as you open more packs
Open 151 packs
0 packs openedEvery pack is drawn at 151's measured pull rates, and every hit is a real card at today's price.
- Spent
- $0.00
- Pulled
- $0.00
- Net
- $0.00
$28.47 a pack · hits valued at what they'd sell for after fees
Auto speed
Default: one loose pack's TCGplayer market price today.
Open until I get…Auto-opens until you get it, then shows how your luck compares.
Your pulls
Every card you pull collects here. About 31% of packs have a hit.
Value is what you'd net selling each hit (13% fees + $0.30; under $1.50 counts as $0.05). Luck ranks your run against thousands of simulated runs of the same length. Most runs finish below the long-run average, because a few huge pulls drag the average up. Commons, uncommons and reverse holos aren't counted. Just for fun: each run is random.
Is it worth opening?
Simulates opening 9 packs using the measured pull rates and current card prices.
Elite Trainer Box: $508 today · MSRP $49.99 (Scrydex, Oct 12, 2026). Sealed products sell well above MSRP once they're hard to find at retail.
Simulating…
Top chase cards
| Card | Market price | Per pack | Chance in 9 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Charizard ex #199 Special Illustration Rare | $321 | 1 in 225 | 3.9% |
| Blastoise ex #200 Special Illustration Rare | $117 | 1 in 225 | 3.9% |
| Venusaur ex #198 Special Illustration Rare | $92.26 | 1 in 225 | 3.9% |
| Charmander #168 Illustration Rare | $90.23 | 1 in 188 | 4.7% |
| Squirtle #170 Illustration Rare | $90.22 | 1 in 188 | 4.7% |
| Zapdos ex #202 Special Illustration Rare | $82.75 | 1 in 225 | 3.9% |
| Pikachu #173 Illustration Rare | $67.80 | 1 in 188 | 4.7% |
| Bulbasaur #166 Illustration Rare | $62.37 | 1 in 188 | 4.7% |
Counts hits only (Double Rare, Ultra Rare, Illustration Rare, Special Illustration Rare, Hyper Rare), valued at what you'd likely net selling them: market price minus 13% fees and $0.30 per card, with cards under $1.50 counted as bulk ($0.05). Commons, uncommons, regular rares and reverse holos are left out, so this understates total value slightly.
Not financial advice. Prices change daily; results are estimates, not guarantees.
Card prices: TCGplayer market price via Scrydex (54 cards), as of 2026-10-12. Sealed prices: Scrydex, Oct 12, 2026. Price paid defaults to today's market price; switch to MSRP or enter what you actually paid. Open in the full pack simulator.
Where a pack's value comes from
An average pack's hits are worth about $6.85 after selling fees, against a $4.49 MSRP (packs sell for about $28.47 today). Just 5 cards account for 42% of that.
The cards carrying the value
- Charizard ex #199: $1.24 per pack (18%)
- Blastoise ex #200: $0.45 per pack (7%)
- Charmander #168: $0.42 per pack (6%)
- Squirtle #170: $0.42 per pack (6%)
- Venusaur ex #198: $0.36 per pack (5%)
What a hit is usually worth
Most cards in each rarity sell for far less than the few chase cards. On average you pull one card worth $20+ every 10 packs.
8 Under $2, 4 $2–10
10 $2–10, 3 $10–20, 3 $20–50
5 $10–20, 4 $20–50, 7 $50+
2 $10–20, 5 $50+
2 $2–10, 1 $20–50
Under $2 $2–10 $10–20 $20–50 $50+
Value per pack = chance of pulling each card × what you'd net selling it. Cards within a rarity are assumed equally likely. Price brackets use TCGplayer market price before fees.
Quick answers
- When did Pokémon 151 come out?
- 151 came out on Sep 22, 2023 in English.
- What are the chase cards in 151?
- By today's market price: Charizard ex (Special Illustration Rare, $320.91, about 1 in 225 packs), Blastoise ex (Special Illustration Rare, $116.55, about 1 in 225 packs), and Venusaur ex (Special Illustration Rare, $92.26, about 1 in 225 packs).
- Is 151 worth opening?
- On average, no: the hits in a pack are worth about $8.04 at today's prices, against $28.47 for a loose pack. Open for fun; buy the single if you want one card.
- How many packs are in a 151 Elite Trainer Box?
- 9 packs, for a 25% chance of at least one Special Illustration Rare.
Where these numbers come from
We only count openings we've checked against the original source. When several qualify, we add up the hits and packs across them.
TCGplayer Authentication CenterUsed in our numbers
Reddit u/slickwilli69 (r/PokemonTCG)Not yet verified
DigitalTQNot yet verified
Prices: Scrydex.
Rates are as published by the source; combined rates are total hits divided by total packs. Ranges are Jeffreys 95% intervals. How sure we are: “Very sure” when the range is within ±25% of the rate, “Fairly sure” within ±50%, otherwise “Rough estimate.”
How to cite this page
Poké Life, “Pokémon 151 pull rates,” https://poke-life.com/sets/151/ (data checked Oct 7, 2026). CC BY 4.0.Free to share and adapt under CC BY 4.0. The rates change when we verify new openings, so include the date. A copy of the numbers that won't change: 2026-10-12 version (all versions).