SIRTeam Rocket's Mewtwo ex
$378.19
1 in 1,009 packs
Pull rate analysis
Destined Rivals pull rates
Every rarity's odds from 2 verified openings, 11,900+ packs in all, plus your chances by product and what a pack is really worth.
$188.72
$141.63
$76.79
$76.16
In Pokémon Destined Rivals, a Special Illustration Rare turns up in about 1 in 92 packs (1.09%), from 130 hits in 11,924 packs across 2 verified openings, checked Oct 7, 2026. At today's prices the hits in an average pack are worth $2.29, against $8.70 for a loose pack.
- 11,924Packs measuredFrom 2 verified studies
- 33%SIR in a booster boxAt least one in 36 packs
- $2.29Hit value / packAverage value vs. $8.70 loose pack
- May 30, 2025Release dateSet code SV10
Pull rate summary
How often each rarity turns up, based on every verified pack we have. “Specific card” assumes every card in a rarity is equally likely.
| Rarity | Odds per pack | 95% range | Sample | How sure we are |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Double RareSpecific card: 1 in 86 (17 cards) | 1 in 519.83% | 19.00%–20.68%±4% of the rate | 1,716 in 8,655packs, reconstructed | Very sureDR-001 |
| Illustration RareSpecific card: 1 in 271 (23 cards) | 1 in 128.48% | 7.99%–8.98%±6% of the rate | 1,041 in 12,282packs, reconstructed | Very sureDR-001, DR-002 |
| Ultra RareSpecific card: 1 in 339 (22 cards) | 1 in 156.49% | 6.06%–6.94%±7% of the rate | 785 in 12,098packs, reconstructed | Very sureDR-001, DR-002 |
| Special Illustration RareSpecific card: 1 in 1,009 (11 cards) | 1 in 921.09% | 0.92%–1.29%±17% of the rate | 130 in 11,924packs, reconstructed | Very sureDR-001, DR-002 |
| Hyper RareSpecific card: 1 in 868 (6 cards) | 1 in 1450.69% | 0.56%–0.85%±21% of the rate | 86 in 12,446packs, reconstructed | Very sureDR-001, DR-002 |
Most valuable cards
Today's TCGplayer market price, and your odds of pulling each card in one pack if every card in its rarity is equally likely.
Cynthia's Garchomp ex
$188.72
1 in 1,009 packs
Ethan's Ho-Oh ex
$141.63
1 in 1,009 packs
Team Rocket's Moltres ex
$76.79
1 in 1,009 packs
Team Rocket's Nidoking ex
$76.16
1 in 1,009 packs
SIR
Team Rocket's Crobat ex
$53.07
1 in 1,009 packs
HR
Team Rocket's Mewtwo ex
$50.22
1 in 868 packs
IR
Misty's Psyduck
$44.87
1 in 271 packs
SIR
Ethan's Adventure
$29.65
1 in 1,009 packs
HR
Cynthia's Garchomp ex
$27.04
1 in 868 packs
SIR
Team Rocket's Giovanni
$23.02
1 in 1,009 packs
IR
Misty's Lapras
$22.26
1 in 271 packs
Prices as of Oct 12, 2026. Card images are shown for identification.
Do other openings agree?
Every opening we found lands close to our numbers, across all 4 rarities.
Every opening is a bit different by luck. "Agrees" means the difference is small enough to be luck of the draw.
Illustration Rare
Our number: 1 in 12 packs
- TCGplayer Authentication Center8,682 packs1 in 12Agrees
- Pokemon Fam Club (YouTube)3,600 packs1 in 11Agrees
Ultra Rare
Our number: 1 in 15 packs
- TCGplayer Authentication Center8,498 packs1 in 16Agrees
- Pokemon Fam Club (YouTube)3,600 packs1 in 15Agrees
Special Illustration Rare
Our number: 1 in 92 packs
- TCGplayer Authentication Center8,324 packs1 in 95Agrees
- Pokemon Fam Club (YouTube)3,600 packs1 in 86Agrees
Hyper Rare
Our number: 1 in 145 packs
- TCGplayer Authentication Center8,846 packs1 in 150Agrees
- Pokemon Fam Club (YouTube)3,600 packs1 in 133Agrees
How we decide if an opening agrees
Someone who opens 100 packs can easily land on 1 in 15 or 1 in 30 for a rarity that's really 1 in 20, just by luck. Bigger openings land closer to the true rate. For each opening we work out the range its pack count could plausibly produce (a 95% interval). If our number falls inside that range, the opening agrees. "Small sample" means that range is wide, so the opening can't confirm or rule out much on its own.
What are my odds?
| Rarity | Per pack | Chance of at least one in 36 | Packs for 50% / 90% |
|---|---|---|---|
| Double Rare | 1 in 5 | >99.9% | 4 / 11 |
| Illustration Rare | 1 in 12 | 95.9% (95.0%–96.6%) | 8 / 26 |
| Ultra Rare | 1 in 15 | 91.1% (89.5%–92.5%) | 11 / 35 |
| Special Illustration Rare | 1 in 92 | 32.6% (28.2%–37.3%) | 64 / 211 |
| Hyper Rare | 1 in 145 | 22.1% (18.2%–26.4%) | 100 / 333 |
Ranges reflect the 95% uncertainty in the measured rate. Odds are independent per pack; no product guarantees a hit.
Your odds as you open more packs
Open Destined Rivals packs
0 packs openedEvery pack is drawn at Destined Rivals's measured pull rates, and every hit is a real card at today's price.
- Spent
- $0.00
- Pulled
- $0.00
- Net
- $0.00
$8.70 a pack · hits valued at what they'd sell for after fees
Auto speed
Default: one loose pack's TCGplayer market price today.
Open until I get…Auto-opens until you get it, then shows how your luck compares.
Your pulls
Every card you pull collects here. About 34% of packs have a hit.
Value is what you'd net selling each hit (13% fees + $0.30; under $1.50 counts as $0.05). Luck ranks your run against thousands of simulated runs of the same length. Most runs finish below the long-run average, because a few huge pulls drag the average up. Commons, uncommons and reverse holos aren't counted. Just for fun: each run is random.
Is it worth opening?
Simulates opening 36 packs using the measured pull rates and current card prices.
Booster box: $401 today · MSRP $162 (Scrydex, Oct 12, 2026). Sealed products sell well above MSRP once they're hard to find at retail.
Simulating…
Top chase cards
| Card | Market price | Per pack | Chance in 36 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team Rocket's Mewtwo ex #231 Special Illustration Rare | $378 | 1 in 1,009 | 3.5% |
| Cynthia's Garchomp ex #232 Special Illustration Rare | $189 | 1 in 1,009 | 3.5% |
| Ethan's Ho-Oh ex #230 Special Illustration Rare | $142 | 1 in 1,009 | 3.5% |
| Team Rocket's Moltres ex #229 Special Illustration Rare | $76.79 | 1 in 1,009 | 3.5% |
| Team Rocket's Nidoking ex #233 Special Illustration Rare | $76.16 | 1 in 1,009 | 3.5% |
| Team Rocket's Crobat ex #234 Special Illustration Rare | $53.07 | 1 in 1,009 | 3.5% |
| Team Rocket's Mewtwo ex #240 Hyper Rare | $50.22 | 1 in 868 | 4.1% |
| Misty's Psyduck #193 Illustration Rare | $44.87 | 1 in 271 | 12.4% |
Counts hits only (Double Rare, Ultra Rare, Illustration Rare, Special Illustration Rare, Hyper Rare), valued at what you'd likely net selling them: market price minus 13% fees and $0.30 per card, with cards under $1.50 counted as bulk ($0.05). Commons, uncommons, regular rares and reverse holos are left out, so this understates total value slightly.
Not financial advice. Prices change daily; results are estimates, not guarantees.
Card prices: TCGplayer market price via Scrydex (79 cards), as of 2026-10-12. Sealed prices: Scrydex, Oct 12, 2026. Price paid defaults to today's market price; switch to MSRP or enter what you actually paid. Open in the full pack simulator.
Where a pack's value comes from
An average pack's hits are worth about $1.82 after selling fees, against a $4.49 MSRP (packs sell for about $8.70 today). Just 5 cards account for 45% of that.
The cards carrying the value
- Team Rocket's Mewtwo ex #231: $0.33 per pack (18%)
- Cynthia's Garchomp ex #232: $0.16 per pack (9%)
- Misty's Psyduck #193: $0.14 per pack (8%)
- Ethan's Ho-Oh ex #230: $0.12 per pack (7%)
- Misty's Lapras #194: $0.07 per pack (4%)
What a hit is usually worth
Most cards in each rarity sell for far less than the few chase cards. On average you pull one card worth $20+ every 54 packs.
17 Under $2
9 Under $2, 12 $2–10, 1 $10–20
17 $2–10, 4 $10–20, 2 $20–50
2 $10–20, 3 $20–50, 6 $50+
2 $2–10, 2 $10–20, 1 $20–50, 1 $50+
Under $2 $2–10 $10–20 $20–50 $50+
Value per pack = chance of pulling each card × what you'd net selling it. Cards within a rarity are assumed equally likely. Price brackets use TCGplayer market price before fees.
Quick answers
- When did Pokémon Destined Rivals come out?
- Destined Rivals came out on May 30, 2025 in English.
- What are the chase cards in Destined Rivals?
- By today's market price: Team Rocket's Mewtwo ex (Special Illustration Rare, $378.19, about 1 in 1,009 packs), Cynthia's Garchomp ex (Special Illustration Rare, $188.72, about 1 in 1,009 packs), and Ethan's Ho-Oh ex (Special Illustration Rare, $141.63, about 1 in 1,009 packs).
- Is Destined Rivals worth opening?
- On average, no: the hits in a pack are worth about $2.29 at today's prices, against $8.70 for a loose pack. Open for fun; buy the single if you want one card.
- Is a Destined Rivals booster box worth it?
- A booster box has 36 packs and sells for about $401. Its hits are worth about $82 on average, with a 33% chance of at least one Special Illustration Rare.
- How many packs are in a Destined Rivals Elite Trainer Box?
- 9 packs, for a 9% chance of at least one Special Illustration Rare.
Where these numbers come from
We only count openings we've checked against the original source. When several qualify, we add up the hits and packs across them.
TCGplayer Authentication CenterUsed in our numbers
Pokemon Fam Club (YouTube)Used in our numbers
Prices: Scrydex.
Rates are as published by the source; combined rates are total hits divided by total packs. Ranges are Jeffreys 95% intervals. How sure we are: “Very sure” when the range is within ±25% of the rate, “Fairly sure” within ±50%, otherwise “Rough estimate.”
How to cite this page
Poké Life, “Pokémon Destined Rivals pull rates,” https://poke-life.com/sets/destined-rivals/ (data checked Oct 7, 2026). CC BY 4.0.Free to share and adapt under CC BY 4.0. The rates change when we verify new openings, so include the date. A copy of the numbers that won't change: 2026-10-12 version (all versions).