Pull rate analysis5 min read

Destined Rivals pull rates: what 11,900+ opened packs tell us

Every rarity's odds from two verified openings, how the set stacks up against others, and whether opening packs beats buying singles.

By Numbers checked Oct 7, 2026

Destined Rivals · 11,900+ packs measured

1 in 92packs per Special Illustration Rare

  1. Double Rare1 in 5
  2. Illustration Rare1 in 12
  3. Ultra Rare1 in 15
  4. Special Illustration Rare1 in 92
  5. Hyper Rare1 in 145
  • 11,924Packs measuredFrom 2 verified studies
  • 33%SIR in a booster boxAt least one in 36 packs
  • $2.29Hit value / packAverage value vs. $8.70 loose pack
  • May 30, 2025Release dateSet code SV10
New to pull rates? The terms in 30 seconds
“1 in 92 packs”
On average, you'd open 92 packs to pull one. It's an average, not a promise: you could hit it in pack 3 or go 300 without one.
SIR (Special Illustration Rare)
Full-art cards with special artwork. Usually a set's most valuable pulls.
IR (Illustration Rare)
Art cards of single Pokémon. More common than SIRs, and often collected as a set.
Hyper Rare
The gold cards. Among the rarest pulls in modern sets.
Double Rare / Ultra Rare
The ex and full-art cards that make up most of a set's hits.
Booster box / ETB
A booster box has 36 packs. An Elite Trainer Box (ETB) has 9, plus sleeves and accessories.
On this page
  1. Key takeaways
  2. The pull rates, rarity by rarity
  3. How Destined Rivals compares
  4. The chase cards
  5. Your odds by product
  6. Should you open packs or buy singles?
  7. About that “1 in 86” number
  8. Where these numbers come from

Destined Rivals brought Team Rocket’s Pokémon back to the Pokémon TCG. So how often do its chase cards actually show up? We combined two independent, verified openings, 11,900+ packs in all, to find out.

Key takeaways

  • A Special Illustration Rare (SIR) shows up about 1 in 92 packs.
  • There are 11 SIRs, so one specific SIR, like Team Rocket’s Mewtwo ex, is about 1 in 1,009 packs.
  • Hyper Rares (the gold cards) are the rarest pull at about 1 in 145 packs.
  • A 36-pack booster box gives you about a 33% chance of at least one SIR. Not a guarantee.
  • At today’s prices, an average pack’s hits are worth about $2.29, less than the $4.49 a pack costs. If you want one specific card, buy the single.

The pull rates, rarity by rarity#

Each row below is how often that rarity turns up, based on every verified pack we have. “One specific card” is your odds of pulling a particular card from that rarity, such as the exact SIR you’re chasing.

RarityHow oftenPer packOne specific cardHow sure we are
Double Rare1 in 5 packs19.8%1 in 8617 cardsVery sure8,655 packs
Illustration Rare1 in 12 packs8.5%1 in 27123 cardsVery sure12,282 packs
Ultra Rare1 in 15 packs6.5%1 in 33922 cardsVery sure12,098 packs
Special Illustration Rare1 in 92 packs1.1%1 in 1,00911 cardsVery sure11,924 packs
Hyper Rare1 in 145 packs0.69%1 in 8686 cardsVery sure12,446 packs

"One specific card" assumes every card in a rarity is equally likely. "How sure we are" reflects how many packs were counted: more packs, tighter estimate.

A quick way to read this: Double Rares are common enough that you’ll see one in most five-pack stretches. Everything below that is a real chase.

How Destined Rivals compares#

Here’s how often an SIR shows up in Destined Rivals next to the other sets we track. Special sets tend to have kinder odds than main sets, so keep that in mind when comparing.

How often a Special Illustration Rare shows up, by setLonger bar = easier to pull
  1. 30th Celebration1 in 20
  2. Paldea Evolved1 in 32
  3. Scarlet & Violet1 in 32
  4. Obsidian Flames1 in 32
  5. 1511 in 32
  6. Prismatic Evolutions1 in 45
  7. Paradox Rift1 in 47
  8. Paldean Fates1 in 58
  9. Ascended Heroes1 in 69
  10. Phantasmal Flames1 in 80
  11. Perfect Order1 in 81
  12. Chaos Rising1 in 83
  13. Temporal Forces1 in 85
  14. Twilight Masquerade1 in 85
  15. Journey Together1 in 86
  16. Surging Sparks1 in 87
  17. Stellar Crown1 in 90
  18. Destined Rivals1 in 92
  19. Mega Evolution1 in 101

17 of the 18 other sets we track give you better Special Illustration Rare odds than Destined Rivals.

The chase cards#

These are the most valuable cards in the set right now, with the odds of pulling each one.

  • SIRTeam Rocket's Mewtwo ex (#231)

    Team Rocket's Mewtwo ex

    #231

    $378.19

    1 in 1,009 packs

  • SIRCynthia's Garchomp ex (#232)

    Cynthia's Garchomp ex

    #232

    $188.72

    1 in 1,009 packs

  • SIREthan's Ho-Oh ex (#230)

    Ethan's Ho-Oh ex

    #230

    $141.63

    1 in 1,009 packs

  • SIRTeam Rocket's Moltres ex (#229)

    Team Rocket's Moltres ex

    #229

    $76.79

    1 in 1,009 packs

  • SIRTeam Rocket's Nidoking ex (#233)

    Team Rocket's Nidoking ex

    #233

    $76.16

    1 in 1,009 packs

  • SIRTeam Rocket's Crobat ex (#234)

    Team Rocket's Crobat ex

    #234

    $53.07

    1 in 1,009 packs

TCGplayer market prices as of Oct 12, 2026. Odds assume every card in a rarity is equally likely.

Your odds by product#

Bigger products give you more packs, and more packs mean more chances. Here’s what that looks like for the products most people buy.

ProductAt least one SIRAt least one Hyper RareIllustration Rares on average
1 pack1%1%0.1
Booster bundle6 packs6%4%0.5
Elite Trainer Box9 packs9%6%0.8
Pokémon Center ETB11 packs11%7%0.9
Booster box36 packs33%22%3.1

Every pack is independent, so no product guarantees a hit.

Should you open packs or buy singles?#

If you’re after one particular card, the math is lopsided. The table compares each chase card’s market price with what it costs, on average, to pull it yourself.

CardBuy the singlePull it yourselfVerdict
Team Rocket's Mewtwo exSpecial Illustration Rare · #231$378.19$4,530about 1,009 packs on averageBuy it · 12× cheaper
Cynthia's Garchomp exSpecial Illustration Rare · #232$188.72$4,530about 1,009 packs on averageBuy it · 24× cheaper
Ethan's Ho-Oh exSpecial Illustration Rare · #230$141.63$4,530about 1,009 packs on averageBuy it · 32× cheaper
Team Rocket's Moltres exSpecial Illustration Rare · #229$76.79$4,530about 1,009 packs on averageBuy it · 59× cheaper
Team Rocket's Nidoking exSpecial Illustration Rare · #233$76.16$4,530about 1,009 packs on averageBuy it · 59× cheaper

"Pull it yourself" is the average number of packs to pull that exact card, at $4.49 a pack (MSRP). Packs also give you other hits worth about $2.29 at market price, which brings a pack's real cost down to about $2.20. Even then, the single is cheaper for all 5 of these cards.

Opening packs is still fun, and that’s a fine reason to do it. Just budget for the fun, not for the card.

About that “1 in 86” number#

You may have seen Destined Rivals SIRs quoted at “1 in 86” packs. In TCGplayer’s article, 1 in 86 is the odds of pulling one specific Double Rare, not any SIR. Their SIR figure is 1 in 94.

Where these numbers come from#

We only count openings we’ve checked against the original source. When more than one verified opening measured a rarity, we add up the hits and packs across them. TCGplayer didn’t publish an exact pack count, so we work it back out from the rate and margin they did publish. Pokemon Fam Club didn’t count Double Rares, so that row comes from TCGplayer alone.

  1. TCGplayer Authentication CenterUsed in our numbers

    Physical pack openings · more than 8,000 packs · Published May 30, 2025 · By Peter Day (TCGplayer) · We checked it Oct 7, 2026

  2. Pokemon Fam Club (YouTube)Used in our numbers

    Physical pack openings · 3,600 (100 booster boxes) packs · Published May 28, 2025 · We checked it Oct 7, 2026

Prices: Scrydex.

Pull rates and card prices in this article come from our evidence registry and were last checked on Oct 7, 2026. Figures from outside sources, like grading fees, link to where they came from. Rates update as new verified openings come in; see our methodology for how we combine studies. Probabilities are estimates from published samples, not guarantees. Not financial advice.

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