Alt ArtMachamp V
$193.31
1 in 811 packs
Pull rate analysis
Astral Radiance pull rates
Every rarity's odds from 1 verified opening, 8,000+ packs in all, plus your chances by product and what a pack is really worth.
$116.36
$85.09
$73.80
$71.70
In Pokémon Astral Radiance, an Alternate-art Pokémon V turns up in about 1 in 135 packs (0.74%), from 59 hits in 8,000 packs across 1 verified opening, checked Oct 12, 2026. At today's prices the hits in an average pack are worth $3.94, against $10.26 for a loose pack.
- 8,000Packs measuredFrom 1 verified study
- $3.94Hit value / packAverage value vs. $10.26 loose pack
- May 27, 2022Release dateSet code SWSH10
Pull rate summary
How often each rarity turns up, based on every verified pack we have. “Specific card” assumes every card in a rarity is equally likely.
| Rarity | Odds per pack | 95% range | Sample | How sure we are |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pokémon VSpecific card: 1 in 149 (19 cards) | 1 in 812.77% | 12.06%–13.52%±6% of the rate | 1,022 in 8,000packs, reconstructed | Very sureASR-001 |
| VMAX or VSTARSpecific card: 1 in 259 (9 cards) | 1 in 293.47% | 3.09%–3.89%±12% of the rate | 278 in 8,000packs, reconstructed | Very sureASR-001 |
| Full-art Pokémon VSpecific card: 1 in 704 (15 cards) | 1 in 472.13% | 1.83%–2.46%±15% of the rate | 170 in 8,000packs, reconstructed | Very sureASR-001 |
| Full-art TrainerSpecific card: 1 in 833 (9 cards) | 1 in 931.08% | 0.87%–1.32%±21% of the rate | 86 in 8,000packs, reconstructed | Very sureASR-001 |
| Alternate-art Pokémon VSpecific card: 1 in 811 (6 cards) | 1 in 1350.74% | 0.57%–0.94%±25% of the rate | 59 in 8,000packs, reconstructed | Fairly sureASR-001 |
| Rainbow RareSpecific card: 1 in 1,406 (18 cards) | 1 in 781.28% | 1.05%–1.54%±19% of the rate | 102 in 8,000packs, reconstructed | Very sureASR-001 |
| Gold RareSpecific card: 1 in 1,184 (9 cards) | 1 in 1320.76% | 0.59%–0.97%±25% of the rate | 61 in 8,000packs, reconstructed | Very sureASR-001 |
| Trainer Gallery (any)Specific card: 1 in 238 (30 cards) | 1 in 812.58% | 11.86%–13.32%±6% of the rate | 1,006 in 8,000packs, reconstructed | Very sureASR-001 |
| Trainer Gallery: non-V PokémonSpecific card: 1 in 142 (12 cards) | 1 in 128.48% | 7.88%–9.10%±7% of the rate | 678 in 8,000packs, reconstructed | Very sureASR-001 |
| Trainer Gallery: V, VMAX or TrainerSpecific card: 1 in 439 (18 cards) | 1 in 244.10% | 3.68%–4.55%±11% of the rate | 328 in 8,000packs, reconstructed | Very sureASR-001 |
Most valuable cards
Today's TCGplayer market price, and your odds of pulling each card in one pack if every card in its rarity is equally likely.
Starmie V
$116.36
1 in 238 packs
Origin Forme Palkia V
$85.09
1 in 811 packs
Beedrill V
$73.80
1 in 811 packs
Garchomp V
$71.70
1 in 238 packs
Alt Art
Origin Forme Dialga V
$62.40
1 in 811 packs
Alt Art
Hisuian Sneasler V
$35.66
1 in 811 packs
Alt Art
Hisuian Lilligant V
$27.51
1 in 811 packs
Full-art Pokémon V
Jirachi V
$25.23
1 in 704 packs
Trainer Gallery (any)
Zacian V
$19.81
1 in 238 packs
Trainer Gallery (any)
Galarian Moltres V
$18.09
1 in 238 packs
Rainbow Rare
Machamp VMAX
$17.53
1 in 1,406 packs
Prices as of Oct 12, 2026. Card images are shown for identification.
What are my odds?
| Rarity | Per pack | Chance of at least one in 36 | Packs for 50% / 90% |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pokémon V | 1 in 8 | 99.3% (99.0%–99.5%) | 6 / 17 |
| VMAX or VSTAR | 1 in 29 | 72.0% (67.7%–76.1%) | 20 / 66 |
| Full-art Pokémon V | 1 in 47 | 53.9% (48.5%–59.2%) | 33 / 107 |
| Full-art Trainer | 1 in 93 | 32.4% (26.9%–38.0%) | 64 / 213 |
| Alternate-art Pokémon V | 1 in 135 | 23.5% (18.5%–28.9%) | 94 / 311 |
| Rainbow Rare | 1 in 78 | 37.1% (31.5%–42.8%) | 54 / 179 |
| Gold Rare | 1 in 132 | 24.0% (19.2%–29.6%) | 91 / 302 |
| Trainer Gallery (any) | 1 in 8 | 99.2% (98.9%–99.4%) | 6 / 18 |
| Trainer Gallery: non-V Pokémon | 1 in 12 | 95.9% (94.8%–96.8%) | 8 / 26 |
| Trainer Gallery: V, VMAX or Trainer | 1 in 24 | 77.8% (74.1%–81.3%) | 17 / 56 |
Ranges reflect the 95% uncertainty in the measured rate. Odds are independent per pack; no product guarantees a hit.
Your odds as you open more packs
Open Astral Radiance packs
0 packs openedEvery pack is drawn at Astral Radiance's measured pull rates, and every hit is a real card at today's price.
- Spent
- $0.00
- Pulled
- $0.00
- Net
- $0.00
$10.26 a pack · hits valued at what they'd sell for after fees
Auto speed
Default: one loose pack's TCGplayer market price today.
Open until I get…Auto-opens until you get it, then shows how your luck compares.
Your pulls
Every card you pull collects here. About 32% of packs have a hit.
Value is what you'd net selling each hit (13% fees + $0.30; under $1.50 counts as $0.05). Luck ranks your run against thousands of simulated runs of the same length. Most runs finish below the long-run average, because a few huge pulls drag the average up. Commons, uncommons and reverse holos aren't counted. Just for fun: each run is random.
Is it worth opening?
Simulates opening 36 packs using the measured pull rates and current card prices.
Booster box: $409 today · MSRP $144 (Scrydex, Oct 12, 2026). Sealed products sell well above MSRP once they're hard to find at retail.
Simulating…
Top chase cards
| Card | Market price | Per pack | Chance in 36 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Machamp V #172 Alternate-art Pokémon V | $193 | 1 in 811 | 4.3% |
| Starmie V #TG13 Trainer Gallery: V, VMAX or Trainer | $116 | 1 in 439 | 7.9% |
| Origin Forme Palkia V #167 Alternate-art Pokémon V | $85.09 | 1 in 811 | 4.3% |
| Beedrill V #161 Alternate-art Pokémon V | $73.80 | 1 in 811 | 4.3% |
| Garchomp V #TG23 Trainer Gallery: V, VMAX or Trainer | $71.70 | 1 in 439 | 7.9% |
| Origin Forme Dialga V #177 Alternate-art Pokémon V | $62.40 | 1 in 811 | 4.3% |
| Hisuian Sneasler V #175 Alternate-art Pokémon V | $35.66 | 1 in 811 | 4.3% |
| Hisuian Lilligant V #163 Alternate-art Pokémon V | $27.51 | 1 in 811 | 4.3% |
Counts hits only (Pokémon V, VMAX or VSTAR, Full-art Pokémon V, Full-art Trainer, Alternate-art Pokémon V, Rainbow Rare, Gold Rare, Trainer Gallery: non-V Pokémon, Trainer Gallery: V, VMAX or Trainer), valued at what you'd likely net selling them: market price minus 13% fees and $0.30 per card, with cards under $1.50 counted as bulk ($0.05). Commons, uncommons, regular rares and reverse holos are left out, so this understates total value slightly.
Not financial advice. Prices change daily; results are estimates, not guarantees.
Card prices: TCGplayer market price via Scrydex (115 cards), as of 2026-10-12. Sealed prices: Scrydex, Oct 12, 2026. Price paid defaults to today's market price; switch to MSRP or enter what you actually paid. Open in the full pack simulator.
Where a pack's value comes from
An average pack's hits are worth about $1.84 after selling fees, against a $3.99 MSRP (packs sell for about $10.26 today). Just 5 cards account for 41% of that.
The cards carrying the value
- Starmie V #TG13: $0.23 per pack (12%)
- Machamp V #172: $0.21 per pack (11%)
- Garchomp V #TG23: $0.14 per pack (8%)
- Origin Forme Palkia V #167: $0.09 per pack (5%)
- Beedrill V #161: $0.08 per pack (4%)
What a hit is usually worth
Most cards in each rarity sell for far less than the few chase cards. On average you pull one card worth $20+ every 75 packs.
17 Under $2, 2 $2–10
5 Under $2, 4 $2–10
1 Under $2, 11 $2–10, 2 $10–20, 1 $20–50
4 Under $2, 5 $2–10
2 $20–50, 4 $50+
14 $2–10, 4 $10–20
6 $2–10, 3 $10–20
11 $2–10, 1 $10–20
10 $2–10, 6 $10–20, 2 $50+
Under $2 $2–10 $10–20 $20–50 $50+
Value per pack = chance of pulling each card × what you'd net selling it. Cards within a rarity are assumed equally likely. Price brackets use TCGplayer market price before fees.
Quick answers
- When did Pokémon Astral Radiance come out?
- Astral Radiance came out on May 27, 2022 in English.
- What are the chase cards in Astral Radiance?
- By today's market price: Machamp V (Alternate-art Pokémon V, $193.31, about 1 in 811 packs), Starmie V (Trainer Gallery (any), $116.36, about 1 in 238 packs), and Origin Forme Palkia V (Alternate-art Pokémon V, $85.09, about 1 in 811 packs).
- Is Astral Radiance worth opening?
- On average, no: the hits in a pack are worth about $3.94 at today's prices, against $10.26 for a loose pack. Open for fun; buy the single if you want one card.
- Is an Astral Radiance booster box worth it?
- A booster box has 36 packs and sells for about $409. Its hits are worth about $142 on average.
- How many packs are in an Astral Radiance Elite Trainer Box?
- 8 packs.
Where these numbers come from
We only count openings we've checked against the original source. When several qualify, we add up the hits and packs across them.
TCGplayer Authentication CenterUsed in our numbers
Prices: Scrydex.
Rates are as published by the source; combined rates are total hits divided by total packs. Ranges are Jeffreys 95% intervals. How sure we are: “Very sure” when the range is within ±25% of the rate, “Fairly sure” within ±50%, otherwise “Rough estimate.”
How to cite this page
Poké Life, “Pokémon Astral Radiance pull rates,” https://poke-life.com/sets/astral-radiance/ (data checked Oct 12, 2026). CC BY 4.0.Free to share and adapt under CC BY 4.0. The rates change when we verify new openings, so include the date. A copy of the numbers that won't change: 2026-10-12 version (all versions).