Pull rates
Which Pokémon packs have the worst pull rates?
The sets, rarities, single cards, and products that make you open the most packs. Every rate comes from verified physical openings, with how sure we are next to it.
The short answer
Of the 24 sets we track, Mega Evolution has the worst odds for a Special Illustration Rare, the card most people open packs for: 1 in 101 packs, followed by Destined Rivals at 1 in 92. For gold Hyper Rares, the toughest is Surging Sparks at 1 in 189.
The rarest pull we've measured anywhere is the Mega Hyper Rare in Perfect Order, at about 1 in 1,667 packs (rough estimate, from 3,599 packs). One specific card is rarer still, because a rarity's luck is split across its cards: Mega Lucario ex from Mega Evolution works out to about 1 in 2,500 packs.
Bad odds don't automatically make a bad set. Prices decide what a pull is worth, so our worst sets to open ranks sets by value per pack instead (the lowest average hit value is Chaos Rising at $1.27 a pack), and best pull rates shows the kindest odds.
The rarest pulls in any set
Every rarity we've measured, rarest first. Longer bars mean more packs per hit.
A "Rough estimate" rate comes from only a few hits, so the true odds could be noticeably better or worse. Each set page lists the openings behind its rates.
Toughest odds by rarity
The three sets with the worst odds for each rarity most sets share.
Toughest SIR odds
Special Illustration Rare, per pack
- 1Mega Evolution1 in 101
- 2Destined Rivals1 in 92
- 3Stellar Crown1 in 90
Toughest Hyper Rare odds
Gold cards, per pack
- 1Surging Sparks1 in 189
- 2Prismatic Evolutions1 in 179
- 3Twilight Masquerade1 in 147
Toughest Illustration Rare odds
Per pack
- 1Paldean Fates1 in 14
- 2Obsidian Flames1 in 13
- 3Scarlet & Violet1 in 13
Toughest Ultra Rare odds
Full-art ex and Supporters, per pack
- 1Ascended Heroes1 in 21
- 21511 in 16
- 3Destined Rivals1 in 15
The hardest single cards to pull
The most valuable card in each of the hardest rarities, and the odds of pulling that exact card.
- Umbreon VMAXEvolving Skies · Alternate-art Pokémon VMAX1 in 2,000 packs$2,265 · 6 cards share 1 in 333
- Mega Gengar exAscended Heroes · Special Illustration Rare1 in 1,528 packs$833.70 · 22 cards share 1 in 69
- Umbreon exPrismatic Evolutions · Special Illustration Rare1 in 1,441 packs$1,285 · 32 cards share 1 in 45
Assumes every card in a rarity is equally likely. Prices are TCGplayer market prices for ungraded, Near Mint cards.
Products most likely to miss the big hits
Each set's biggest product, and the chance it holds none of the set's rarest cards, or no SIR at all.
| Set | Product | Rarest pull | Chance of none | Chance of no SIR |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ascended Heroes | Elite Trainer Box9 packs · $144.19 | Mega Hyper Rare1 in 526 packs | 98% | 88% |
| Perfect Order | Booster box36 packs · $173.75 | Mega Hyper Rare1 in 1,667 packs | 98% | 64% |
| Mega Evolution | Booster box36 packs · $303.71 | Mega Hyper Rare1 in 1,250 packs | 97% | 70% |
| Phantasmal Flames | Booster box36 packs · $395.14 | Mega Hyper Rare1 in 1,250 packs | 97% | 64% |
| Chaos Rising | Booster box36 packs · $186.07 | Mega Hyper Rare1 in 1,000 packs | 96% | 65% |
| Prismatic Evolutions | Elite Trainer Box9 packs · $123.68 | Hyper Rare1 in 179 packs | 95% | 82% |
| 30th Celebration | Elite Trainer Box9 packs · $140.92 | Futuristic Rare1 in 120 packs | 93% | 64% |
| Crown Zenith | Elite Trainer Box10 packs · $320.44 | Secret Rare (Pikachu)1 in 133 packs | 93% | — |
| Evolving Skies | Booster box36 packs · $2,264 | Alternate-art Pokémon VMAX1 in 333 packs | 90% | — |
| Paldean Fates | Elite Trainer Box9 packs · $431.73 | Hyper Rare1 in 62 packs | 86% | 86% |
| 151 | Elite Trainer Box9 packs · $508.05 | Hyper Rare1 in 52 packs | 84% | 75% |
| Lost Origin | Booster box36 packs · $733.17 | Alternate-art Pokémon V1 in 200 packs | 83% | — |
| Surging Sparks | Booster box36 packs · $302.76 | Hyper Rare1 in 189 packs | 83% | 66% |
| Silver Tempest | Booster box36 packs · $523.19 | Alternate-art Pokémon V1 in 167 packs | 81% | — |
| Twilight Masquerade | Booster box36 packs · $340.68 | Hyper Rare1 in 147 packs | 78% | 65% |
| Destined Rivals | Booster box36 packs · $401.34 | Hyper Rare1 in 145 packs | 78% | 67% |
| Temporal Forces | Booster box36 packs · $305.54 | Hyper Rare1 in 139 packs | 77% | 65% |
| Journey Together | Booster box36 packs · $192.10 | Hyper Rare1 in 137 packs | 77% | 66% |
| Stellar Crown | Booster box36 packs · $300.86 | Hyper Rare1 in 137 packs | 77% | 67% |
| Astral Radiance | Booster box36 packs · $409.40 | Alternate-art Pokémon V1 in 135 packs | 77% | — |
| Paradox Rift | Booster box36 packs · $283.82 | Hyper Rare1 in 82 packs | 64% | 46% |
| Paldea Evolved | Booster box36 packs · $458.48 | Hyper Rare1 in 57 packs | 53% | 31% |
| Scarlet & Violet | Booster box36 packs · $293.48 | Hyper Rare1 in 54 packs | 51% | 32% |
| Obsidian Flames | Booster box36 packs · $367.18 | Hyper Rare1 in 52 packs | 50% | 32% |
Every pack is independent, so no product guarantees a hit. A dash means the set has no Special Illustration Rares. For any product and card, try how many packs.
Why some packs are so hard
The top tier is printed to be rare
A set's rarest rarity usually has only a card or two, and it's what the set is built around chasing. At 1 in 1,667 packs, a 36-pack booster box of Perfect Order has a 98% chance of holding no Mega Hyper Rare at all.
More cards, thinner odds per card
A rarity's odds are shared by every card in it. Mega Evolution has 10 SIRs at 1 in 101 packs, so one specific SIR is about 1 in 1,010.
Small products, fewer chances
Per-pack odds don't change with the box. An Elite Trainer Box simply gives you fewer tries than a booster box, so sets sold mainly in ETBs and bundles come up empty more often per purchase.
"1 in 100" isn't a countdown
Ninety-nine empty packs don't make the next one luckier. The pack simulator lets you feel the swings before you spend.
Why our numbers differ from other sites
We fact-checked 42 pull-rate pages: 11 had numbers that don't match the opening they cite. We only count original, verified openings, and we show the sample size behind every rate.