Alt ArtGiratina V
$851.13
1 in 800 packs
Pull rate analysis
Lost Origin pull rates
Every rarity's odds from 1 verified opening, 8,000+ packs in all, plus your chances by product and what a pack is really worth.
$203.23
$116.41
$103.28
$44.36
In Pokémon Lost Origin, an Alternate-art Pokémon V turns up in about 1 in 200 packs (0.50%), from 40 hits in 8,000 packs across 1 verified opening, checked Oct 12, 2026. At today's prices the hits in an average pack are worth $6.14, against $19.30 for a loose pack.
- 8,000Packs measuredFrom 1 verified study
- $6.14Hit value / packAverage value vs. $19.30 loose pack
- Sep 9, 2022Release dateSet code SWSH11
Pull rate summary
How often each rarity turns up, based on every verified pack we have. “Specific card” assumes every card in a rarity is equally likely.
| Rarity | Odds per pack | 95% range | Sample | How sure we are |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pokémon VSpecific card: 1 in 103 (12 cards) | 1 in 911.63% | 10.94%–12.34%±6% of the rate | 930 in 8,000packs, reconstructed | Very sureLOR-001 |
| VMAX or VSTARSpecific card: 1 in 158 (7 cards) | 1 in 234.42% | 3.99%–4.89%±10% of the rate | 354 in 8,000packs, reconstructed | Very sureLOR-001 |
| Full-art Pokémon VSpecific card: 1 in 657 (13 cards) | 1 in 511.98% | 1.69%–2.30%±15% of the rate | 158 in 8,000packs, reconstructed | Very sureLOR-001 |
| Full-art TrainerSpecific card: 1 in 563 (8 cards) | 1 in 701.42% | 1.18%–1.70%±18% of the rate | 114 in 8,000packs, reconstructed | Very sureLOR-001 |
| Alternate-art Pokémon VSpecific card: 1 in 800 (4 cards) | 1 in 2000.50% | 0.36%–0.67%±31% of the rate | 40 in 8,000packs, reconstructed | Fairly sureLOR-001 |
| Rainbow RareSpecific card: 1 in 1,172 (15 cards) | 1 in 781.28% | 1.05%–1.54%±19% of the rate | 102 in 8,000packs, reconstructed | Very sureLOR-001 |
| Gold RareSpecific card: 1 in 789 (6 cards) | 1 in 1320.76% | 0.59%–0.97%±25% of the rate | 61 in 8,000packs, reconstructed | Very sureLOR-001 |
| Radiant RareSpecific card: 1 in 60 (3 cards) | 1 in 205.01% | 4.55%–5.51%±10% of the rate | 401 in 8,000packs, reconstructed | Very sureLOR-001 |
| Trainer Gallery (any)Specific card: 1 in 244 (30 cards) | 1 in 812.31% | 11.61%–13.05%±6% of the rate | 985 in 8,000packs, reconstructed | Very sureLOR-001 |
| Trainer Gallery: non-V PokémonSpecific card: 1 in 133 (11 cards) | 1 in 128.29% | 7.70%–8.91%±7% of the rate | 663 in 8,000packs, reconstructed | Very sureLOR-001 |
| Trainer Gallery: V, VMAX or TrainerSpecific card: 1 in 536 (17 cards) | 1 in 323.17% | 2.81%–3.58%±12% of the rate | 254 in 8,000packs, reconstructed | Very sureLOR-001 |
| Trainer Gallery: gold-and-black VMAXSpecific card: 1 in 233 (2 cards) | 1 in 1160.86% | 0.68%–1.08%±23% of the rate | 69 in 8,000packs, reconstructed | Very sureLOR-001 |
Most valuable cards
Today's TCGplayer market price, and your odds of pulling each card in one pack if every card in its rarity is equally likely.
Aerodactyl V
$203.23
1 in 800 packs
Pikachu V
$116.41
1 in 244 packs
Pikachu VMAX
$103.28
1 in 244 packs
Gengar
$44.36
1 in 244 packs
Trainer Gallery (any)
Pikachu
$38.39
1 in 244 packs
Rainbow Rare
Giratina VSTAR
$28.72
1 in 1,172 packs
Trainer Gallery (any)
Mew VMAX
$28.41
1 in 244 packs
Trainer Gallery (any)
Charizard
$28.08
1 in 244 packs
Alt Art
Rotom V
$27.48
1 in 800 packs
Trainer Gallery (any)
Pikachu VMAX
$24.66
1 in 244 packs
Trainer Gallery (any)
Snorlax
$23.02
1 in 244 packs
Prices as of Oct 12, 2026. Card images are shown for identification.
What are my odds?
| Rarity | Per pack | Chance of at least one in 36 | Packs for 50% / 90% |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pokémon V | 1 in 9 | 98.8% (98.5%–99.1%) | 6 / 19 |
| VMAX or VSTAR | 1 in 23 | 80.4% (76.9%–83.6%) | 16 / 51 |
| Full-art Pokémon V | 1 in 51 | 51.3% (45.8%–56.7%) | 35 / 116 |
| Full-art Trainer | 1 in 70 | 40.2% (34.8%–46.1%) | 49 / 161 |
| Alternate-art Pokémon V | 1 in 200 | 16.5% (12.3%–21.6%) | 139 / 460 |
| Rainbow Rare | 1 in 78 | 37.1% (31.5%–42.8%) | 54 / 179 |
| Gold Rare | 1 in 132 | 24.0% (19.2%–29.6%) | 91 / 302 |
| Radiant Rare | 1 in 20 | 84.3% (81.3%–87.0%) | 14 / 45 |
| Trainer Gallery (any) | 1 in 8 | 99.1% (98.8%–99.3%) | 6 / 18 |
| Trainer Gallery: non-V Pokémon | 1 in 12 | 95.6% (94.4%–96.5%) | 9 / 27 |
| Trainer Gallery: V, VMAX or Trainer | 1 in 32 | 68.6% (64.1%–73.0%) | 22 / 72 |
| Trainer Gallery: gold-and-black VMAX | 1 in 116 | 26.7% (21.7%–32.4%) | 81 / 267 |
Ranges reflect the 95% uncertainty in the measured rate. Odds are independent per pack; no product guarantees a hit.
Your odds as you open more packs
Open Lost Origin packs
0 packs openedEvery pack is drawn at Lost Origin's measured pull rates, and every hit is a real card at today's price.
- Spent
- $0.00
- Pulled
- $0.00
- Net
- $0.00
$19.30 a pack · hits valued at what they'd sell for after fees
Auto speed
Default: one loose pack's TCGplayer market price today.
Open until I get…Auto-opens until you get it, then shows how your luck compares.
Your pulls
Every card you pull collects here. About 36% of packs have a hit.
Value is what you'd net selling each hit (13% fees + $0.30; under $1.50 counts as $0.05). Luck ranks your run against thousands of simulated runs of the same length. Most runs finish below the long-run average, because a few huge pulls drag the average up. Commons, uncommons and reverse holos aren't counted. Just for fun: each run is random.
Is it worth opening?
Simulates opening 36 packs using the measured pull rates and current card prices.
Booster box: $733 today · MSRP $144 (Scrydex, Oct 12, 2026). Sealed products sell well above MSRP once they're hard to find at retail.
Simulating…
Top chase cards
| Card | Market price | Per pack | Chance in 36 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Giratina V #186 Alternate-art Pokémon V | $851 | 1 in 800 | 4.4% |
| Aerodactyl V #180 Alternate-art Pokémon V | $203 | 1 in 800 | 4.4% |
| Pikachu V #TG16 Trainer Gallery: V, VMAX or Trainer | $116 | 1 in 536 | 6.5% |
| Pikachu VMAX #TG17 Trainer Gallery: V, VMAX or Trainer | $103 | 1 in 536 | 6.5% |
| Gengar #TG06 Trainer Gallery: non-V Pokémon | $44.36 | 1 in 133 | 23.8% |
| Pikachu #TG05 Trainer Gallery: non-V Pokémon | $38.39 | 1 in 133 | 23.8% |
| Giratina VSTAR #201 Rainbow Rare | $28.72 | 1 in 1,172 | 3.0% |
| Mew VMAX #TG30 Trainer Gallery: gold-and-black VMAX | $28.41 | 1 in 233 | 14.4% |
Counts hits only (Pokémon V, VMAX or VSTAR, Full-art Pokémon V, Full-art Trainer, Alternate-art Pokémon V, Rainbow Rare, Gold Rare, Trainer Gallery: non-V Pokémon, Trainer Gallery: V, VMAX or Trainer, Trainer Gallery: gold-and-black VMAX, Radiant Rare), valued at what you'd likely net selling them: market price minus 13% fees and $0.30 per card, with cards under $1.50 counted as bulk ($0.05). Commons, uncommons, regular rares and reverse holos are left out, so this understates total value slightly.
The pack layout for this set is provisional: some slot assignments come from secondary sources.
Not financial advice. Prices change daily; results are estimates, not guarantees.
Card prices: TCGplayer market price via Scrydex (98 cards), as of 2026-10-12. Sealed prices: Scrydex, Oct 12, 2026. Price paid defaults to today's market price; switch to MSRP or enter what you actually paid. Open in the full pack simulator.
Where a pack's value comes from
An average pack's hits are worth about $3.18 after selling fees, against a $3.99 MSRP (packs sell for about $19.30 today). Just 5 cards account for 59% of that.
The cards carrying the value
- Giratina V #186: $0.93 per pack (29%)
- Gengar #TG06: $0.29 per pack (9%)
- Pikachu #TG05: $0.25 per pack (8%)
- Aerodactyl V #180: $0.22 per pack (7%)
- Pikachu V #TG16: $0.19 per pack (6%)
What a hit is usually worth
Most cards in each rarity sell for far less than the few chase cards. On average you pull one card worth $20+ every 21 packs.
12 Under $2
5 Under $2, 2 $2–10
3 Under $2, 9 $2–10, 1 $10–20
3 Under $2, 5 $2–10
2 $20–50, 2 $50+
12 $2–10, 2 $10–20, 1 $20–50
1 Under $2, 4 $2–10, 1 $10–20
1 Under $2, 6 $2–10, 4 $20–50
1 Under $2, 9 $2–10, 5 $10–20, 2 $50+
2 $20–50
3 Under $2
Under $2 $2–10 $10–20 $20–50 $50+
Value per pack = chance of pulling each card × what you'd net selling it. Cards within a rarity are assumed equally likely. Price brackets use TCGplayer market price before fees.
Quick answers
- When did Pokémon Lost Origin come out?
- Lost Origin came out on Sep 9, 2022 in English.
- What are the chase cards in Lost Origin?
- By today's market price: Giratina V (Alternate-art Pokémon V, $851.13, about 1 in 800 packs), Aerodactyl V (Alternate-art Pokémon V, $203.23, about 1 in 800 packs), and Pikachu V (Trainer Gallery (any), $116.41, about 1 in 244 packs).
- Is Lost Origin worth opening?
- On average, no: the hits in a pack are worth about $6.14 at today's prices, against $19.30 for a loose pack. Open for fun; buy the single if you want one card.
- Is a Lost Origin booster box worth it?
- A booster box has 36 packs and sells for about $733. Its hits are worth about $221 on average.
- How many packs are in a Lost Origin Elite Trainer Box?
- 8 packs.
Where these numbers come from
We only count openings we've checked against the original source. When several qualify, we add up the hits and packs across them.
TCGplayer Authentication CenterUsed in our numbers
Prices: Scrydex.
Rates are as published by the source; combined rates are total hits divided by total packs. Ranges are Jeffreys 95% intervals. How sure we are: “Very sure” when the range is within ±25% of the rate, “Fairly sure” within ±50%, otherwise “Rough estimate.”
How to cite this page
Poké Life, “Pokémon Lost Origin pull rates,” https://poke-life.com/sets/lost-origin/ (data checked Oct 12, 2026). CC BY 4.0.Free to share and adapt under CC BY 4.0. The rates change when we verify new openings, so include the date. A copy of the numbers that won't change: 2026-10-12 version (all versions).